Norwegian farmed salmon prices are likely to remain buoyant as a result of low supply growth, Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) said in a report published today. However, the sector faces increased political risk since the installation of the new US administration last month due to threats of increased import tariffs.
NCR predicts an average salmon price of NOK 99 per kg through 2027, given supply growth of 3.6%-4.8% over the same period. However, the agency takes a more conservative view of salmon farmers' profitability due to the increased risk of knock-on impacts from prospective tariffs.
It is still unclear if the US will impose tariffs on imports from Europe. Positively, demand for farmed salmon is not highly price sensitive. In addition, the global nature of the salmon market means that tariffs could lead to rerouting of trade flows, with exporters redirecting their products to alternative markets.
However, the implications for Norwegian salmon farmers could be severe if the EU responds to US tariffs with countermeasures that have a direct knock-on impact on exports from Norway.
Contacts:
Geir Kristiansen, analyst, +4790784593, geir.kristiansen@nordiccreditrating.com
Christian Yssen, analyst, +4740019900, christian.yssen@nordiccreditrating.com