Swedish housing market slows as competition rises
During the fourth quarter of 2020, the Swedish housing market slowed from the break-neck pace seen since May 2020, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The market's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) fell to 7.1% in the fourth quarter from 21.9% in the third as Sweden faced tougher stay-at-home guidance to counter the resurgence of COVID-19. In full-year 2020, housing prices grew by 11.5% nationally, while prices of single family homes rose by 15.5%, and apartments by 5.3%.
The fourth quarter also saw additional growth by mortgage market challengers, led by Skandiabanken and Landshypotek, which added to their market share at the expense of the top four mortgage lenders, whose market share in in the fourth quarter came in at 58% compared with 61% for the full year.
The chart to the left below shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the last three, six, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses by clicking on the chart.
[wide-chart-1]
The largest banks face stiffer competition
Swedish mortgage lending has historically been dominated by Swedbank and Handelsbanken, which together account for 45% of the market. By segment, Swedbank accounts for 25.4% of the single-family home market and Handelsbanken 22.5% of the apartment market. However, Swedbank had a declining market share in the fourth quarter with only 13.5% of the marginal market share, compared with the 19% achieved by Handelsbanken, which was the only lender in the top four to achieve a higher market share in the fourth quarter than in the full year.
The largest improvements in terms of market share were at Skandiabanken, which doubled its existing 2.1% market share during the quarter and increased its share for 2020, with particularly strong growth in apartment lending. Landshypotek Bank increased its share of the single-family housing market (it does not lend to apartment owners) by capturing 6.1% of the marginal market (compared with a 0.5% overall share). Larger challengers such as SBAB and Länsförsäkringar Bank also improved their market shares in the fourth quarter.
[chart-2]
Single-family housing prices settle down
The HOX index continued to show housing prices increasing in the fourth quarter, but there was a notable reduction in the pace of growth seen since May. Most markets are at record highs, but notably the apartment market came off of its November 2020 peak in December.
Nationally, housing prices increased by 11.5% in 2020, compared with 4.5% in 2019 and the average annual growth of 4.7% recorded over the past five years. The single-family housing market maintains its relatively high attractiveness as lifestyles adapt to the ongoing pandemic (15.5% growth in 2020 against 4.4% in 2019 and annual growth of 6.1% over the past five years). The residential apartment market grew markedly in the second half, recovering early losses and resulting in a 5.3% growth rate for full-year 2020 compared with 5.0% in 2019 and only 2.5% annual growth over the past five years.
NCR believes that the pace of housing price growth will be more in line with the long-term 6% growth rate in 2021 in part due to continued social distancing prior to the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, but also due to comments by the regulator about reimplementing previous amortisation requirements during the year.
The chart to the left shows mortgage market CAGR in Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side of the chart to see CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR intends to update this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q3 2020, is available here.
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