EDITOR'S NOTE (2 Mar. 2026): The subtotal "EBITDA, exc. OBOS-banken and share of JV profits" has been corrected in the table below.
Our 'BBB-' long-term rating on Norway-based OBOS BBL and the stable outlook remain unchanged, despite worse-than-expected revenue and EBITDA in 2025. Below is a summary of Nordic Credit Rating's adjustments to OBOS BBL's metrics, calculated excluding OBOS-banken, their impact on 2025 metrics, and a comparison with our 2025 expectations and key rating drivers.
A significant driver behind weaker-than-expected EBITDA is the delay in the company's partial divestment of two Fornebu projects to Thon Gruppen, which is expected to contribute nearly NOK 1bn to EBITDA upon completion. We previously anticipated these transactions would be largely completed in 2025, but now expect completion in the first half of 2026, pending regulatory approvals. As a result, we expect 2026 EBITDA metrics to reflect these divestments.
Contributions from OBOS-banken and joint ventures have partially offset the impact of these delays on 2025 EBITDA metrics. As our rating focuses on OBOS BBL, excluding OBOS-banken, dividends and group contributions from the bank totalling NOK 805m are included in EBITDA to reflect their cash flow impact (replacing NOK 657m in bank-related EBITDA in OBOS BBL's consolidated reports). These payments have supported our adjusted metrics and accounted for the majority of OBOS's NOK 1.7bn in NCR-adjusted EBITDA in 2025. Additionally, dividends from joint ventures were NOK 986m (compared to NOK 720m in reported share of JV profits), NOK 400m higher than expected. While we view this level of reliance on bank and JV dividends as unsustainable over the long term, we consider the bank a strong component of the OBOS group. In our view, the bank and JV contributions underscore the value of the company's diversification during a period of weak demand for residential development projects. We believe the bank's current capital position allows for further support to credit metrics in 2026 and 2027 if market conditions remain subdued.
The resulting 2025 credit metrics remain above our downside rating triggers of a 55% equity ratio and 1.5x EBITDA to net interest. We also believe the company maintains adequate liquidity and solid access to bank and capital market funding. Looking ahead to 2026, we expect that positive EBITDA contributions from partial divestments at Fornebu and strong bank contributions will sustain ratios, offsetting weak EBITDA contributions from residential development.
| NOKm | 2025 actual | 2025 projection |
|---|---|---|
| Reported EBITDA | 1,124 | |
| OBOS-banken and JV profits | -1,377 | |
| EBITDA, exc. OBOS-banken and share of JV profits | -253 | 1,404 |
| Dividends received from JVs | 986 | 572 |
| Annual donation to charity* | 160 | 106 |
| OBOS-banken contributions | 805 | 250 |
| Other adjustments | 14 | |
| NCR-adjusted EBITDA | 1,712 | 2,332 |
| EBITDA/net interest | 1.8x | 2.1x |
| FFO/net debt | 4.0% | 5.5% |
| Equity ratio | 64.8% | 64.5% |
* reported as operational expense in the income statement, but treated as a discretionary dividend payment. All ratios are NCR-adjusted metrics. See related research for details about the 2025 projection.
We continue to monitor the company's ability to withstand the weak residential development market, as well as the impact of persistent inflation on policy rates, interest costs, and construction expenses. There are indications that OBOS' development activity may have passed its trough, with the company reporting improvements in sold, newly started, and under-production properties in 2025. However, low housing starts in recent years limit the upside from new home sales in 2026.
We expect Swedish and Norwegian homebuyers to remain cautious about committing to new builds amid ongoing financial and geopolitical volatility. In both markets, we anticipate only modest improvement in 2026, with a more significant recovery possible in 2027 or 2028 if macroeconomic conditions improve. In Sweden, real wage growth and declining interest rates are providing some support to the new-build market. Additionally, the relaxation of equity and amortisation requirements should bolster overall housing demand, although we do not expect this to generate excess demand for new builds over existing homes.
Related research
i. OBOS BBL 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 16 Jun. 2025.
This commentary does not constitute a rating action.
Contacts:
Sean Cotten, chief rating officer, +46735600337, sean.cotten@nordiccreditrating.com
Anine Gulbrandsen, analyst, +4797501657,
anine.gulbrandsen@nordiccreditrating.com