Mid-sized Norwegian savings banks performed relatively well in the first half of 2023 in the face of weak economic growth and increased household living costs, which constrained lending growth. Positively, higher interest rates boosted net margins and credit spreads on corporate loan books increased. We believe that continued high interest rates and a weaker economy will lead to higher loan-loss provisions over the next 12 months, but that levels will vary significantly between individual banks. Norwegian savings banks are well-capitalised and have strong pre-provision profitability, which makes them resilient to increased credit losses. Our sample of savings banks showed no significant signs of increased losses in the first half, though we see rising provisions by Nordic consumer lenders as an early indication of reduced repayment capacity and heightened credit risk.
Recent domestic policy rates have been beneficial for the country's mid-size savings banks, having risen by 125bps so far this year. The national consumer price index was up 5.4% in June compared with a year earlier. While this was slightly lower than earlier in the first half, the rate of increase was nonetheless elevated. The central bank has indicated that a further interest rate rise of 25bps to further slow the economy is likely before year-end. The unemployment rate remains at extremely low levels but is projected to increase to 3.7% by year-end (from 3.4% in June) and initial figures show minimal second quarter growth in the economy.
Decreased demand for retail loans was reflected in low credit growth of 3.7% in June and July, levels not seen since 1995, and, despite a 3.4% increase in household savings in the first quarter of 2023, we expect steady consumption and high living costs to drive a continued decline of accrued savings.
Looking ahead, we believe further rate increases will become more of a drag on banks' performance than they have thus far. Low lending and deposit growth should increase competition, limiting further margin improvements as policy rates increase. As a result, earnings are unlikely to fully compensate for higher loss provisions and continued cost inflation.
[wide-chart-1]
Lower loan and deposit growth ends trend of sharp margin increases
Norway's savings banks are strongly capitalised, which provides strong buffers against any increase in credit losses. A decrease in lending growth, combined with strong earnings, has supported capital ratios for the banks in our sample. The sector's Core Tier 1 ratio remains strong in an international context and has remained broadly stable over the past 12 months at 19.9%. Most of the banks do not include year-to-date profit in their capital calculations. Accordingly, we expect even higher capital ratios by year-end.
Recent repricing has enabled savings banks to improve earnings by increasing lending rates in line with policy rate rises while raising deposit rates at a slower pace. This has driven a significant improvement in net interest margins in recent quarters boosted by strong average deposit to net loan coverage of 86.3%. We view this as an important income stream as net interest income accounted for 73% of average operating income in the second quarter. A central bank decision to increase interest rates by 50bps late in the second quarter and likely future rate rises will most likely feed into continued increases in interest margins. However, lower saving rates are increasing competition for deposits, which we expect to end a period of sharp increases in net interest margins.
Fee and commission income varies across our sample and ranged between 7-25% of operating income in the second quarter. Commission income in the sample is mainly associated with transfers of mortgage loans to partly owned covered-bond companies, for which margins have trailed rises in three-month NIBOR due to a lag in the re-pricing of loans.
Even with material increases in operating expenses, our sample banks saw significant improvements in their average cost-to-income ratio over the past 12 months (to 46.8% from 51.0%). On average, the cost income ratio in the second quarter fell to 38.6% from 44.3% a year earlier. Half of the banks in our sample are affiliated with the Eika Gruppen alliance and are experiencing a short-term negative impact from higher costs related to implementation of a new IT system, which we expect to reduce the long-term cost base. In terms of core interest and net fee income, the banks in our sample reported average core cost efficiency of 52.4% over the past 12 months.
[wide-chart-2]
Risks are increasing in commercial real estate and construction
Mid-size Norwegian savings banks have high levels of exposure to local and regional real-estate markets, which increases real estate-related concentration risk and has a generally negative impact on our overall credit assessments and ratings. However, most households' finances are sufficiently robust to withstand price increases through adjustments in consumption and savings. About 70% of the on-balance-sheet exposures of the average bank in our sample is to households. This increases to 77% when loans transferred to covered-bond companies are included. We view the underlying cover pool companies as positive, as they enable banks to adjust their loan books through alternative sources of financing.
Norwegian housing prices were broadly higher in the first half despite a dip at the end of the second quarter. However, the outlook is unclear due to increased interest and living costs facing consumers and limited housing construction. Factors such as lower credit growth and consumer savings rates are also likely to constrain new construction. In June, Statistics Norway predicted national housing prices would decline by 1.4% overall in 2023 and by a further 0.1% in 2024.
Exposure to commercial real estate accounts for an average 43% of corporate lending, but varies widely across our sample. We see increased risk in this sector as a result of current falls in property values that will likely continue into early 2024, which could in turn reduce collateral held on savings banks' loan books. Some banks have made pre-emptive loss provisions for commercial real estate risk not captured in their provisioning models, and others might have to increase provisions as property values decline further. Inflation-linked rental contracts have helped to offset higher yield requirements in commercial property valuations so far in 2023 and could support valuations again in 2024 given persistent inflation.
The composition of non-real estate corporate exposure also varies widely. Construction and retail account for significant amounts of corporate lending. The construction sector has seen a particularly sharp decline in activity over the past 18 months, and central bank projections are not optimistic about future business prospects. Higher required rates of return and rising building costs have led to an increase in mothballed projects and an increase in redundancies in the sector. We expect increasing loss provisions for construction lending and a decline in lending to the sector by year-end.
[wide-chart-3]
Asset quality metrics remain strong
Mid-size savings banks reported a stable net loss performance in the first half, with net losses at 10bps for the last twelve months. In our view, asset quality and loss performance will remain key drivers of profitability if interest rates increase further and lending growth declines. Some banks have reported additional portfolio-based reserves due to worsened economic prospects. In our view, these reserves are not adequately accounted for in model-based loan-loss provisions. In addition, some banks have made additional provisions against Stage 2 underperforming loans in light of this deficiency. In addition to higher economic provisions, which might not translate into actual losses, we also believe actual losses and non-performing loans will increase.
Norwegian banks reported relatively strong non-performing loan performances as of June 2023, However, we see signs of worsening loss performance across our sample savings banks. The sample banks reported an increase in net non-performing loans to net loans in the second quarter to 0.87%. This was up from 0.75% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
In addition, we expect non-performing loans and net losses to increase over the next few quarters as the effects of recent interest rate increases take effect.
NCR-Rated norwegian savings banks
Figure 4. NCR ratings on Norwegian savings banks
See NCR company reports for details.
Figure 5: Alliances of the banks covered in this comment
| Alliance | Bank |
|---|
| DSS | Spareskillingsbanken |
| DSS | Skudenes & Aakra Sparebank |
| DSS | Haugesund Sparebank |
| DSS | Flekkefjord Sparebank |
| DSS | Voss Sparebank |
| Eika | Jernbanepersonalets Sparebank |
| Eika | Jæren Sparebank |
| Eika | Orkla Sparebank |
| Eika | Sogn Sparebank |
| Eika | RørosBanken Røros Sparebank |
| Eika | Agder Sparebank |
| Eika | Romerike Sparebank |
| Eika | Skue Sparebank |
| Eika | Skagerrak Sparebank |
| Eika | Odal Sparebank |
| Eika | Aurskog Sparebank |
| Eika | Høland og Setskog Sparebank |
| Eika | Romsdal Sparebank |
| Eika | Larvikbanken - din personlige sparebank |
| Eika | Melhus Sparebank |
| Eika | Sparebanken Narvik |
| Eika | Grong Sparebank |
| Eika | Eidsberg Sparebank |
| Lokalbank | Sparebanken DIN |
| Lokalbank | Askim og Spydeberg Sparebank |
| Lokalbank | Sparebank 68 Nord |
| Lokalbank | Aasen Sparebank |
| Sp1 | Sparebank 1 Gudbrandsdal |
| Sp1 | SpareBank 1 Lom og Skjåk |
| Sp1 | Sparebank 1 Hallingdal Valdres |
DSS: De samarbeidende sparebanker, Eika: Eika Alliansen, Lokalbank: ten independent savings banks, and Sp1: SpareBank 1-alliansen.
Contacts:
Geir Kristiansen, analyst, +4790784593, geir.kristiansen@nordiccreditrating.com
Christian Yssen, analyst, +4740019900, christian.yssen@nordiccreditrating.com
On
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Geir Kristiansen
