NCR covers a wide range of real estate companies focusing on a mix of property types. Currently all NCR-rated property companies are located in Sweden and most are relatively small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with property values ranging from around SEK 5bn to SEK 25bn.
Average remaining lease terms vary from a few months for focused residential managers (Heba and Studentbostäder) to as much as 10 years in the case of community service property manager Vacse. The occupancy rates among the property companies we rate vary between 89% and 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties generally lie at the higher end of the range, while office and industrial/logistics managers usually lie at the lower end.
[wide-chart-1]
The financial risk profiles of the companies we cover vary substantially. Net debt/EBITDA, a key credit metric, is generally relatively weak among property managers with lower-yielding assets, such as residential properties. It is also often weak among companies which are growing rapidly, since net debt can increase instantly, while any resulting EBITDA improvement generally follows over the subsequent 12 months.
While most companies reported market value gains in the first quarter of 2022, we believe that the sector faces increasing headwinds in 2022 as rising interest rates dampen the transaction market while reducing interest coverage. Although inflation-linked rental contracts and interest-rate hedging reduce the immediate impact, we view the current trends as clearly negative for the overall sector.
[wide-chart-2]
In addition to a purely ratio-driven assessment, we also take into account a real estate company's financial risk appetite when considering financial risk. Among other factors, we consider a company's average debt maturity and average fixed-interest period, while we also deem the average interest rate to be relevant. As with the key credit metrics already mentioned, companies' approaches to financial risk taking also differ vastly. As interest rates rise and credit spreads widen, we believe that the differences in individual companies' interest-rate hedging and debt maturity profiles will have a marked impact on the pace and extent that their interest coverage decreases over the next few years.
Our quarterly comparison from Q4, 2021, is available here.
[wide-chart-3]
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