Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of real-estate companies in Sweden with a focus on a range of property types. Most of these companies are relatively small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with portfolio values ranging from around SEK 5bn to SEK 25bn.
Average remaining lease terms vary from a few months for managers focusing on the residential segment (Heba and Studentbostäder) to as much as 10 years in the case of community service property manager Vacse. The occupancy rates among the property companies we rate vary between 91% and 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties are generally at the higher end of this range, while office and industrial/logistics managers are usually at the lower end.
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The financial risk profiles of the companies we cover vary substantially. Net debt/EBITDA, a key credit metric, is generally relatively weak among property managers with lower-yielding assets, such as residential properties. It is also often weak among companies that are growing rapidly, since net debt can increase instantly, while any resulting EBITDA improvement comes over the subsequent 12 months.
Although most companies reported market value gains in the first half of 2022, we believe that the sector faces increasing headwinds in 2022 as rising interest rates and deteriorating financing conditions reduce interest coverage and dampen the outlook for the sector. Although inflation-linked rental contracts and interest-rate hedging reduce the immediate impact, the current trends are clearly negative for the overall sector.
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In addition to a purely ratio-driven assessment, we also take into account a real-estate company's financial risk appetite when considering financial risk. Among other factors, we consider a company's average debt maturity and average fixed-interest period, while also deeming the average interest rate to be relevant. As with the aforementioned key credit metrics, companies' approaches to financial risk differ vastly. As interest rates rise and credit spreads widen, we believe that the differences in individual companies' interest-rate hedging and debt maturity profiles will have a marked impact on the pace at and extent to which their interest coverage decreases over the next few years. Although most of the impact from the new real-estate landscape is yet to be seen, the rising interest rates have started to be reflected in companies' interim reports. The average reported interest rate increased to 2.2% at the end of the second quarter, compared with 1.9% a quarter earlier. We expect this figure to increase further over the coming quarters, with a resulting negative impact on interest coverage.
Our quarterly comparisons from Q1 2022 are available here.
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