Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of real-estate companies in Sweden with a focus on a range of property types. Most of these companies are relatively small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with portfolio values ranging from around SEK 6bn to SEK 27bn.
Average remaining lease terms vary from a few months for managers focusing on the residential segment (Heba and Studentbostäder) to as much as 10 years in the case of community service property manager Vacse. The occupancy rates among the property companies we rate vary between 91% and 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties are generally at the higher end of this range, while office and industrial/logistics managers are usually at the lower end.
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The financial risk profiles of the companies we cover vary substantially. Net debt/EBITDA, a key credit metric, is generally comparatively weak among property managers with lower-yielding assets, such as residential properties. It is also often weak among companies that are growing rapidly, since net debt increases instantly, while any resulting EBITDA improvement comes over the subsequent 12 months.
We expect the financial risk profiles of companies in the sector in general to worsen from 2023 onwards, and this has driven a series of negative rating actions since the summer (see Recent Rating Actions below). We foresee continued headwinds in the sector as the impact of higher interest rates on companies' key credit metrics increases and access to capital market financing remains challenging.
In addition, we expect companies' net loan-to-value (LTV) ratios to come under pressure as property yields rise when returns on alternative asset classes become more attractive. We anticipate that valuations will be positively impacted by inflation-linked rental contracts, particularly for commercial property managers, but we expect higher yields to have a greater impact. Consequently, we expect property values in general to decrease in 2023 and 2024, which we have included in our forecasts for rated companies' LTV ratios since the summer.
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In addition to a purely ratio-driven assessment, we also take into account a real-estate company's financial risk appetite when considering financial risk. Among other factors, we consider a company's average debt maturity and average fixed-interest period, as well as its average interest rate. As with the aforementioned key credit metrics, companies' approaches to financial risk vary significantly. As interest rates rise and credit spreads widen, we believe that the differences in individual companies' interest-rate hedging and debt maturity profiles will have a marked impact on the pace at and extent to which their interest coverage decreases over the next few years. Although most of the impact from the new real-estate landscape is yet to be felt, rising interest rates are clearly reflected in companies' interim reports. The average reported interest rate increased to 2.6% at the end of the third quarter, compared with 1.8% at year-end 2021. We expect this figure to increase further over the coming quarters, with a resulting negative impact on interest coverage.
Our quarterly comparisons from Q2 2022 are available here.
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Recent rating actions on real-estate companies
On
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