Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of real-estate companies in Sweden that focus on a variety of property types. Most of these companies are relatively small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values ranging from around SEK 8bn to SEK 28bn.
Average remaining lease terms vary from a few months for managers focusing on the residential segment (Heba and Studentbostäder) to as much as 10 years in the case of community service property manager Vacse. The occupancy rates among the property companies we rate vary between 89% and 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties are generally at the higher end of this range, while office and industrial/logistics managers are usually at the lower end. So far, occupancy rates are still strong, and we see limited impact on the companies' business risk profiles. However, a significant slowdown in the Swedish economy could lead to increased vacancies over the next couple of years. We see residential and community service property managers as better positioned for maintaining high occupancy in an economic downturn.
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The financial risk profiles of the companies we cover vary substantially. Net debt/EBITDA, a key credit metric, is generally comparatively weak among property managers with lower-yielding assets, such as residential properties. It is also often weak among companies that are growing rapidly, since net debt increases instantly, while any resulting EBITDA improvement comes over the subsequent 12 months. The companies' cash flow generation will be supported by the remarkably high inflation in October 2022, as this enabled higher than usual rental increases in 2023.
We expect the financial risk profiles of companies in the sector in general to continue to worsen in 2023 and onwards, and this has driven a series of rating actions (see Recent Rating Actions below). We foresee continued headwinds in the sector as the impact of higher interest rates on companies' key credit metrics increases and access to capital market financing remains challenging, although credit spreads tightened in late 2022 compared with previous quarters.
In addition, we expect companies' net loan-to-value (LTV) ratios to come under pressure as property yields rise as returns on alternative asset classes become more attractive. We anticipate that valuations will be positively impacted by inflation-linked rental contracts, particularly for commercial property managers, but we expect higher yields to have a greater impact. We have seen a limited degree of valuation changes in H2 2022 and Q1 2023, and we expect property values in general to decrease in 2023 and 2024.
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In addition to a purely ratio-driven assessment, we also take into account a real-estate company's financial risk appetite when considering financial risk. Among other factors, we consider a company's average debt maturity and average fixed-interest period, as well as its average interest rate. As with the aforementioned key credit metrics, companies' approaches to financial risk vary significantly. As interest rates rise, we believe that the differences in individual companies' interest-rate hedging and debt maturity profiles will have a marked impact on the pace at and extent to which their interest coverage decreases over the next few years. Rising interest rates are already reflected in companies' interim reports. The average reported interest rate increased to 3.4% as of 31 Mar. 2023, compared with 1.9% a year before. We expect this figure to increase further over the coming quarters, with a resulting negative impact on interest coverage, although inflation-linked rental contracts partially mitigate the overall impact.
Our quarterly comparisons from Q4 2022 are available here.
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Recent rating actions on real-estate companies
· Fastighets AB Stenvalvet outlook revised to negative; 'BBB+' long-term issuer rating affirmed
· Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) long-term issuer rating lowered to 'BBB'; Outlook stable
· Catena AB (publ) outlook revised to positive; 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed
· Bane NOR Eiendom AS 'A' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable
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