Following a long period of exceptionally benign markets for corporate debt issuers, Nordic capital markets have tightened considerably as investors digest news reports of sharp increases in cases of Covid-19 across Europe and steep declines in oil prices. Assuming that most of this year's debt maturities need refinancing, the resulting volatility is virtually certain to affect interest rates on the EUR 19bn in Nordic corporate bonds scheduled to mature between now and the end of 2020 (EUR 9bn by 30 June).
During 2019, almost EUR 300bn in bonds were issued by Nordic issuers, including government and public entities, and financial institutions. Non-corporate issuers represent more than 80% of the issued amount, while corporates issued EUR 52bn or 20% of the overall volumes. Between 2020 and 2022, we will see maturities of EUR 200-250bn of which the majority will come from non-corporate issuers and 71% from monetary financial institutions.
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The credit market has seen an increase in spreads reflecting an increase in investors' risk aversion. The spread of Covid-19 and the related increase in quarantine action has and will continue to negatively affect consumer demand and the value chains of multinational and regional companies dependent on deliveries from China, and to a lesser degree South Korea and southern Europe. Further, decreasing demand for oil led the OPEC+ group to propose another cut in production last week. The lack of support from Russia and Kazakhstan for this proposal will most likely result in increased production of oil by these two countries from the end of March. The move was met by a signalled price cut from Saudi Arabia. Combined, these events led to a sharp oil price drop earlier this week.
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The oil price decline could directly affect the EUR 1.6bn in Nordic-registered bonds maturing within the Nordic oil and gas sector during 2020, as lower oil prices affect investor sentiment and the ability to service debt in a capital-intensive industry. Other sectors could be indirectly affected by the challenging environment, such as industry, auto, and convenience goods, all of which are typically dependent on deliveries from Asia and demand from European trade partners.
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Utilising Stamdata's definition of investment grade and non-investment grade, 73% of bond volumes issued in the Nordic region during 2019 were from investment grade issuers. As was the case in 2018, more than 75% of all Nordic issuers (which accounted for 25% of 2019 issuance) were not rated by a credit rating agency licensed by the European Securities and Markets Authority. While rated issuers in the corporate sector represent 19% of corporate issuers, they represent 70% of outstanding bond volumes. Smaller companies have less liquid and less regular bond issues and are therefore more dependent on domestic market participants. During the benign market conditions that prevailed for most of 2019, these issuers were able to obtain attractive financing without public ratings. However, increased risk aversion among investors and future changes in bank capital requirements could incentivise more issuers to consider public ratings.
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The uncertainty of the current economic climate, with lowered global growth prospects and whispers of potential recession in some of the Nordic countries, could highly impact the interest rate levels at which both corporates and non-corporates can refinance their bond maturities. Whether issuers are rated and a company's rating level could also affect availability of financing for some issuers. Most corporate bonds maturing in 2020 are issued by the real estate, utilities and auto sectors. Within real estate, a significant amount stems from non-rated issuers, while most rated bonds are within the 'BBB' category.
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Regional corporates represent only 13% of maturing Nordic bonds over the next three years. While the percentage may seem small, the potential for higher interest rates and widening spreads for monetary financial institutions will be transmitted to corporates through higher interest changes on their bank financed debt. The average coupon rate for each sector varies with the operating environment, including financial stability, growth prospects, and capital intensity, as well as the relevant environmental, social and governance conditions prevailing in that sector. For corporates, the average current coupon on senior secured and unsecured bonds issued by investment grade companies as defined by Stamdata in the four Nordic countries is 1.9% while for such issuers with official credit ratings the figure is 1.8%. For non-investment grade issuers, the average current coupon is 6.2%, while for rated non-investment grade issuers the corresponding rate is 3.9%. Given the four countries' different policy rates, the average current coupon for each of the Nordic countries differs.
This report is based on data from Stamdata and covers bonds issued by issuers registered in Nordic countries. The ratings referred to in this report are provided by Stamdata and Nordic Credit Rating (NCR). Please note that the data utilised cover debt issued by Nordic issuers in other countries and currencies. All values are converted to euro from Norwegian krone at EUR/NOK 10.35 as of 6 Mar. 2020. Non-corporate issuers are defined as financial institutions, banks, and government and public sector entities. All data were gathered on 6 Mar. 2020.
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