Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of real-estate companies in Sweden that focus on a variety of property types. Most of these companies are relatively small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values ranging from around SEK 10bn to SEK 33bn.
Average remaining lease terms vary from a few months for managers focusing on the residential segment to as much as 9.3 years in the case of community service property manager Vacse. Occupancy rates among the property companies we rate vary between 90% and 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties are generally at the higher end of this range, while office and industrial/logistics managers are usually at the lower end.
Despite slightly higher vacancies for some issuers, occupancy rates are still strong, and we see limited impact on the business risk profiles of the real-estate companies we rate. However, corporate defaults are still at record-high levels in Sweden, with the worst-affected sectors related to car retailers, restaurants and property developers. We believe that a continued slowdown in the economy with high default rates is likely to lead to increased vacancies over the next couple of years. We regard residential and community service property managers with direct government funding as better positioned to maintain high occupancy in an economic downturn.
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The financial risk profiles of the companies we cover vary substantially. Net debt/EBITDA, a key credit metric, is generally comparatively weak among property managers with lower-yielding assets, such as residential properties. It is also often weak among companies that are growing rapidly, since net debt increases instantly, while any resulting EBITDA improvement comes over the subsequent 12 months. This metric has seen improvements throughout 2023 and early 2024 due to the moderation of growth ambitions among previously rapidly expanding property managers.
Following an easing of inflationary pressure, the Swedish central bank lowered the policy rate by 25bps in May 2024. We expect a continued fall in interest rates for the remainder of 2024 and in 2025, approaching a normalised floating interest rate range of 2.5–3%. Nevertheless, we anticipate continued headwinds in the sector, with the impact of higher interest rates on companies' key credit metrics increasing as swaps entered into at lower interest rates expire. We expect the financial risk profiles of companies in the sector in general to continue to worsen in the short term, but this trend could be reversed as the cost of financing falls. Capital market financing has become increasingly accessible at longer tenors for Swedish property managers throughout the first quarter, with substantial amounts of new issues at more normalised levels relative to the elevated capital market spreads in 2022 and 2023.
In addition, we expect some companies' net loan-to-value (LTV) ratios to come under pressure as property yields rise as returns on alternative asset classes become more attractive, especially for managers focused on residential properties with limited cash flow generation. Valuations have been remarkably resilient since H2 2022, and we expect future revaluations to be largely dependent on the initial yield and the extent of yield adjustments already made in the current valuations. We believe further property value declines will depend more on the specific asset type and quality of individual assets, as well as the asset's debt capacity. We believe that the transaction market, which was sluggish throughout 2023, will pick up in 2024 as uncertainty over interest rates recedes.
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In addition to a purely ratio-driven assessment, we also take into account a real-estate company's financial risk appetite when considering financial risk. Among other factors, we consider a company's average debt maturity and average fixed-interest period, as well as its average interest rate. As with the aforementioned key credit metrics, companies' approaches to financial risk vary significantly. We believe that the differences in individual companies' interest rate hedging and debt maturity profiles have a marked impact on the pace at and extent to which their interest coverage changes over time.
Rising interest rates have been clearly reflected in companies' interim reports. The average reported interest rate increased to 3.7% as of 31 Mar. 2024, compared with 3.3% a year before and only 1.9% two years ago. However, the average interest rate among our issuers has dropped by some 10bps since the peak in the third quarter of 2023, which we believe is an indication that many of them have already seen or are nearing the peak of financing costs. Long-term market interest rates have fallen from their high points, and we have seen greater use of interest rate derivatives. We expect companies' average interest rates to decrease over time as market interest rates are projected to fall continuously over the coming quarters, which will reduce pressure on companies' interest coverage.
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Our quarterly comparisons from Q4 2023 are available here.
Recent rating actions on real-estate companies
- Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable
- Fastighets AB Stenvalvet (publ) 'BBB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable
- Catena AB long-term issuer rating raised to 'BBB'; Outlook stable
- CA Fastigheter AB 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable
- LSTH Svenska Handelsfastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB-' long-term rating affirmed; Outlook stable
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