Competition among lenders Intensifies as Swedish housing market heats up
During the first quarter of 2021, the ongoing growth of the Swedish housing market accelerated further, increasing the pace of expansion seen since May 2020, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The market's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 33.1% in the first quarter compared with 7.1% in the fourth quarter of 2020. Over the past 12 months, housing prices grew by 15.5% nationally, while prices of single family homes rose by 20.3%, and apartments by 8.0%.
Swedish housing prices have risen by 15.5% over the past 12 months, a rate 8.9pp above the historical 6.6% CAGR of the national housing market. The rapid growth of the market has led NCR to apply additional property valuation stresses in our analysis of rated covered bonds, in line with our methodology.
Mortgage lender SBAB was the most material challenger to the dominant market players during the first quarter. The bank took 15.2% of margin share during the quarter, placing it third behind Handelsbanken and SEB. SBAB was increasingly active in the single-family housing market, taking 14.4% of the market despite a single-family housing market share of only 6.6%. No bank took a market share of more than 20% in either the market for houses or apartments during the quarter, signifying increasing competition.
The chart below shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the past three, six, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses by clicking on the chart.
[wide-chart-1]
Dominant banks face stiffer competition
Swedish mortgage lending has historically been dominated by Swedbank and Handelsbanken, which together account for 45% of the market. However, Swedbank continues to lose market share with only 11.1% of the marginal market share, compared with 23.2% total market share. Even Handelsbanken lost share during the first quarter, with only 16.8% compared with its overall share of 21.9%. Among the most active banks, SEB increased its overall share (15.9% compared with 13.9% overall share) with a particularly strong share of new apartment loans (19.9% compared with 14.7%). Nordea maintained its existing share across all markets.
The largest market share improvements were at SBAB (15.2% compared with 8.6%), Skandiabanken, which took 6.4% of the apartment market (compared with its 2.7% share of apartment loans), and Landshypotek Bank, which increased its share of the single-family housing market (it does not lend to apartment owners) by capturing 6.8% of the marginal market (compared with a 0.5% share of housing loans). Länsförsäkringar Bank and Nordnet (partnering with Stabelo) also saw material improvement in their market shares in the first quarter.
[chart-2]
Single-family housing driving the market
Housing prices continued to increase during the first quarter. After a notable reduction in the pace of growth at the end of 2020, all markets are now at record highs after Stockholm and Gothenburg apartment prices finally eclipsed their August 2017 peaks.
Nationally, housing prices have increased by 15.5% over the past 12 months, improving the average annual growth of 5.2% recorded over the past five years. The single-family housing market remains highly attractive as lifestyles adapt to the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic (20.3% 12-month growth compared with 8.0% for apartments).
NCR continues to believe that the pace of housing price growth will eventually align itself with the long-term 6.6% growth rate in the second half of 2021 in part due to the rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, but also due to reimplementation of previous amortisation requirements later in the year. However, we believe that if the market remains hot until the end of the third quarter, growth rates for the fully ear could be in line with the highs recorded in 2009, 2014 and 2015, when housing prices grew by 14-16%.
The chart to the left shows mortgage market CAGR in Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side of the chart to see CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR intends to update this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q4 2020, is available here.
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