A tale of two Swedish housing markets after COVID-19
As of the end of June, COVID-19 has had a marginal impact on the overall Swedish housing market (2.5% CAGR for April-June and 8.9% CAGR YTD) according to figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. However, below the surface the single-family housing market was surging (9.0% CAGR for April-June) while the residential apartment market was sputtering (-7.2% CAGR for April-June).
Mortgage lending has remained strong despite the economic consequences of COVID-19. Mortgage loans grew 1.5% during the second quarter of 2020 (1.3% during the second quarter of 2019). Given the discrepancies for the market, it is not surprising that loans with single-family houses as collateral were responsible for the increase in second quarter lending in 2020.
[wide-chart-1]
Swedbank, Sweden's largest mortgage lender, returned to the top spot during the second quarter with just over 20% of the marginal increase and an even higher 24% of new lending for single-family houses. In the flat market, Handelsbanken maintained its top position with 19% of marginal loans for flats during the quarter.
The chart above shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the last 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, flats and houses by clicking on the chart.
Swedbank returns to the top
The Swedish mortgage market has historically been dominated by Swedbank and Handelsbanken which together have 46% of the market. For the first time in years the two returned to their natural places in the pecking order during the second quarter and combined to take over 37% of the market compared to just 30% over the last 12 months. By segment, each maintained their top position with Swedbank taking 24% of the single-family home market and Handelsbanken 19% of the flat market during the quarter.
Swedbank, which saw a large decline in market share in the wake of money laundering allegations, had the largest increase in market shares during the quarter compared to their last 12 month performance. The increase for Swedbank can be attributed in part to a reduction in lending by Swedish savings banks over the last few months, which were more likely to transfer loans to Swedbank given the increase in their own funding costs during the quarter. Savings banks (as defined by Statistics Sweden) attracted 2.2% of the marginal share during the quarter compared to 4.3% in the first quarter.
The most formidable challengers to the two market leaders during the second quarter were SEB and Nordea with a combined 30% share. SBAB, Länsförsäkringar Bank and Danske Bank all increased their overall market shares during the quarter securing 24% of the market.
Single-family house prices setting all-time highs, flat recovery more modest
The HOX index rebounded to all-time highs for the main index and for single-family homes in all reported markets (see housing market graph) by June 2020. Aside from a one-month decline for April, all markets showed a positive development in each of the following two months. Single-family homes performed best, with the indices rebounding to exceed the previous highs in February. However, the recovery for flats, while positive in May and June, remains well below the February peak levels.
[chart-2]
Year-to-date national housing prices have increased at a CAGR of 8.9%, compared to 5.3% CAGR over the last 10 years. For SFHs, the YTD CAGR is 14.4% (5.0%), while for flats the quick gains at the start of the year have been reversed with CAGR of 0.6% (6.1%). The Stockholm flat market fell most abruptly during the quarter with average prices falling slightly YTD. NCR anticipates that Sweden's house prices will remain difficult to project given the extension of low interest rates and the temporary ability for borrowers to stop amortisation on mortgages. We currently expect 2020 growth rates to be between 3-5%.
The chart to the left shows the cumulative average growth rate (CAGR) for Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side of the graph to see the CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR intends to update this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q1, 2020, is available here.
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