SEB and Nordea accelerate as Swedish housing market bounces back
The latest data shows that SEB and Nordea have increased their share of the Swedish mortgage market over the last half year, targeting a higher share of the growing market for mortgages to flats. In addition, the domestic housing market has returned to or exceeded historical growth levels over the last three months, spurred by falling mortgage rates and higher prices for single-family homes in Sweden's largest cities.
The chart to the below shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the last 3, 6, 12 and 24 months.
The charts in this article are interactive. You can hover the data points and change the series by clicking the buttons. NCR intends to update this interactive information quarterly.
[wide-chart-1]
Swedbank, Handelsbanken and Danske Bank continue to lose market share
The Swedish mortgage market has historically been dominated by Swedbank and Handelsbanken which have over 45% of the market. Even over the last two years, Swedbank and Handelsbanken have taken 39% of marginal growth in the market. However, things have changed in 2019 and the market leaders have combined for under 30% of the marginal market over the last six months. Danske Bank, which was growing rapidly in Sweden prior to its issues related to money laundering, has slowed its growth from 6.4% over the last 24 months to around 1% the last 3-6 months.
Among the benefactors are SEB, Nordea and SBAB, which have had a particularly high share of the new market for flats (50-52% over the last 3-6 months vs 41% combined market share for flats). While mortgage loans for flats are only a third of the overall mortgage market, it is notable that flats comprise 45% of new mortgage loans since 2011 due to significant increases in value as well as high levels of newly-produced apartment housing across Sweden.
In the single-family house market, Länsförsäkringar Bank (LF Bank) has slowed somewhat during the third quarter but maintains a market share (16.6%) in line with Swedbank (16.7%) over the last year. In addition, Skandiabanken, Landshypotek Bank and Sparbanken Skåne continue to materially grow their housing loan shares with 14.3% over the last 3 months compared to their 3.4% overall share.
Another winner of note is "the field". Banks not specifically named in Statistics Sweden's dataset have 4.8% of the residential mortgage market the last 3 months (compared to 2.4% overall share).
Housing price growth is now firmly above ten-year averages
[chart-2]
Valueguard's HOX index shows that housing price growth was above the ten-year average in all major markets during the third quarter. While growth over the last 12 and 36 months has been relatively modest, the national housing market is now growing at rates above ten-year averages in total (5.2%), as well as for homes (4.7%) and flats (6.3%). The biggest gains during the third quarter were seen in single-family homes in Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö. Flats also saw a boost in Gothenburg and Malmö.
NCR has revised its nominal growth expectations upward for the year to 5-6% from 4-5% given banks' recent reductions in mortgage rates and downward revisions in long-term interest rates.
The chart to the left shows the cumulative average growth rate (CAGR) for Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the four options on the right-hand side of the graph to see the CAGR over a variety of periods.
On
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Sean Cotten
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