Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of Swedish real estate companies that focus on a variety of property types. Most are small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values of SEK 12bn to SEK 30bn.
Swedish real estate remains resilient, but not immune, to ongoing geopolitical risks
The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has become more uncertain in recent months, but the baseline outlook for Swedish rated real estate management companies remains broadly stable. We continue to expect a gradual improvement in Sweden’s economic growth in 2026, driven mainly by stronger domestic demand and household purchasing power rather than external trade. In particular, the recovery in private consumption from recent weak levels is supportive for tenants exposed to discretionary spending. Geopolitical tensions have nevertheless increased uncertainty, primarily through potential impacts on confidence, energy markets and global inflation. This reduces visibility for tenants and investors, even as Sweden’s domestic-demand-led base case remains supportive.
Public investment remains a key support factor for economic activity. Spending related to defence, security, and transport infrastructure is expected to remain elevated, reflecting both domestic priorities and the broader European security environment. Increased public investment supports employment and activity across related sectors, as well as demand for office, logistics, and mixed‑use properties.
Conditions in the Swedish real estate market are expected to stabilize further in 2026. Transaction activity is supporting existing asset valuations, reducing the risk of material valuation declines and supporting balance‑sheet visibility for rated issuers. In addition, letting activity is expected to improve gradually. Vacancy rates, particularly in the office segment, remain elevated but are expected to peak during 2026. Demand continues to be strongest for prime assets, while secondary locations face a slower recovery. Overall, we expect a gradual normalization in occupancy rather than a sharp rebound.
Inflation is expected to remain contained through 2026, approaching the central bank’s 2% target during 2027. As rental indexation is typically based on October inflation, we expect modest indexation in 2026 and a limited impact on 2027 revenues. The risk of an energy-related inflation shock cannot be ignored; however, a repeat of the 2022 shock appears unlikely. Any sustained energy disruption could nevertheless alter inflation expectations, reprice interest rates, and increase volatility in rent indexation and operating assumptions.
Downside risks remain elevated, mainly due to geopolitical uncertainty and global financial market volatility which could shake up financing conditions for real estate companies. These factors could also weaken business confidence and delay improvements in occupancy, particularly in cyclical property segments. Credit quality therefore remains differentiated, with asset quality, location, leverage, and access to liquidity remaining key rating drivers.
Despite ongoing scepticism in equity markets regarding asset values, Swedish real estate remains comparatively well positioned relative to many European markets. This continues to support investor interest, even as global uncertainty weighs on sentiment.
Low vacancies and long lease terms support income visibility among rated companies
Occupancy rates among the property companies we rate range from around 90% for office property managers to nearly 100% for managers of residential and community service properties. The average occupancy rate remained stable at 95.0% in the first quarter of 2026, with all issuers maintaining occupancy at or above 90%. Changes were modest, with no company reporting a change of more than one percentage point in the first quarter, indicating that rated companies are largely insulated from the rising vacancy trend in Sweden, particularly outside the central business districts of Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö.
Average remaining lease terms during the quarter ranged from a few months for managers focused on the residential segment to nearly nine years for community service property manager Vacse, which also reported the largest increase in average remaining lease terms (0.3 years) among NCR-rated companies in the first quarter. While average remaining lease terms among office property managers shortened modestly, most other NCR-rated real estate issuers saw only marginal changes in their average remaining lease terms, supported by successful lease renewals and renegotiations.
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Acquisitions drive increased property valuation and higher leverage
Property values for NCR-rated real estate managers rose by nearly 3% in the first quarter, primarily due to Vacse, which reported an 11.8% increase reflecting both lower yield requirements and the addition of acquired properties. The company's yield requirements declined by 20bps since year-end 2025, adding SEK 212m in value, with a further SEK 1bn attributed to the acquisition of three community service properties. Stendörren (9.8%), Svenska Handelsfastigheter (8.3%), Heba (4.1%), and Intea (2.3%) also reported material increases in the first quarter, mainly reflecting completed acquisitions. Despite geopolitical concerns that could affect interest rates and inflation, we expect transaction markets to continue to validate reported market values and anticipate yields will remain broadly stable in most segments over the near term.
NCR-rated real estate issuers’ average debt maturity remained stable at 2.9 years at the end of the first quarter. These issuers continue to benefit from generally favourable financing conditions in both capital markets and the banking system, refinancing debt on improved or broadly stable terms. Vacse recorded the largest increase in average debt maturity, extending its profile by 0.7 years to 4.9 years as it financed three acquisitions. The company issued five- and seven-year bonds totalling SEK 1.2bn in the first quarter. This increased its net LTV to 34% from 29%, which remains well below our negative rating trigger of 45%. Stenvalvet had the largest reduction in average debt maturity during the quarter, although it subsequently issued a three-year bond in April.
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Interest coverage remained stable despite interest rate moves in the first quarter
While STIBOR increased by 25bps to 2.20% at the end of the first quarter, both STIBOR and market expectations have since stabilised around 2.0%. A policy rate hike in 2026 is now unlikely in our base case due to low inflation; however, risks are clearly skewed to the upside. Credit spreads for Swedish real estate companies have also remained attractive. As a result, some issuers are expected to continue increasing financial leverage through projects, acquisitions and share buybacks. Stable rates, higher leverage and modest inflation-linked rental increases could, nevertheless, lead to slight reductions in interest coverage for certain issuers in the coming quarters.
Overall, the sample recorded a slight increase in the interest coverage ratio during the quarter to 2.9x (from 2.8x). Heba stands out with an increase of nearly 30bps based on the last 12 months' results. The company also reported a meaningful reduction in its relatively high net debt to EBITDA ratio (15.3x from 16.7x), reflecting improved operational efficiency and rental growth in its residential portfolio, which has yet to fully reflect inflation-indexation increases since 2022.
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Events after the first quarter
Acquisitions and divestments
Stendörren has completed three acquisitions in Uppsala, Partille and Copenhagen so far in the second quarter. The combined disclosed deal value is approximately SEK 244m, adding warehouse and light industrial assets.
Intea remained active in April, expanding its justice-related segment. The most significant property transaction was the acquisition of the Skärholmen police station in southern Stockholm for SEK 442m before deferred tax adjustments. The current lease extends to 2039. The company also agreed to divest its hydropower portfolio for SEK 68m.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter increased its scale in grocery-anchored retail with the acquisition of five fully let assets for approximately SEK 230m. The properties are located in Nynäshamn, Enköping, Hässleholm, Torslanda and Grums, and are leased on long-term contracts to tenants including Willys and Hemköp.
On 31 Mar. 2026, Platzer entered into a strategically important transaction with the Port of Gothenburg, involving both divestments and an acquisition. The company is a net seller of approximately SEK 684m, divesting land, water areas and office assets, while acquiring a fully let 24,000 sqm logistics property. The transaction supports Platzer’s ongoing portfolio diversification and interest in adding industrial and logistics assets.
Stenhus announced the sale of a vacant development property in Malmö for SEK 110m, slightly above book value.
Spreads remain attractive for capital market financing
In the second quarter, Svenska Handelsfastigheter has remained active in the capital markets, issuing SEK 976m in new green bonds in late May. This includes a three-year bond at 90bps above the reference rate and a SEK 550m five-year bond at 122bps above the reference rate. The company will use SEK 432m of the proceeds to repay bonds maturing in Oct. 2026. We view the company's proactive repayment and efforts to increase the share of senior unsecured bonds in its funding mix positively, which have resulted in high unused credit facility volumes and enhanced financial flexibility to meet bond maturities on a standalone basis.
Since April, Platzer has issued a five-year SEK 200m unsecured bond at 150bps above the reference rate and a four-year SEK 200m bond at 138bps above the reference rate. Vacse issued a SEK 300m tap on its five-year bond at 78bps above the reference rate. Stenvalvet issued a three-year SEK 400m unsecured bond at 110bps above the reference rate.
In May, Stendörren issued a SEK 400m green subordinated hybrid bond under its SEK 800m green bond framework, priced at 375bps above the reference rate for the first four years. The issuance enhances capital flexibility and increases the company's outstanding hybrid instruments to SEK 700m.
Our quarterly comparison from the fourth quarter of 2025 is available here.
Recent publications
Heba Full Rating Report, 3 Mar. 2026
NCR Comments: Platzer Fastigheter rating unchanged following share buy back announcement, 17 Apr. 2026
NCR Comments: Svensk FastighetsFinansiering AB (publ) 'BBB+' rating and outlook unchanged following amended loan terms, 26 Mar. 2026
Capital allocation choices may weaken credit quality of Swedish real estate issuers in 2026, 10 Mar. 2026
30 minuter om svenska fastighetssektorn – Kapitalallokering i fokus, 23 Feb. 2026
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Full Rating Report, 9 Feb. 2026.
Platzer Fastigheter Holding AB (publ) 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 3 Feb. 2026.
Share buybacks may weaken Swedish real estate managers' financial risk profiles in 2026, 17 Dec. 2025.
Stendörren Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 15 Dec. 2025.
NCR Comments: Platzer Fastigheter Holding AB (publ) rating and outlook unchanged following announcement of share buyback, 10 Dec. 2025.
NCR Comments: Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB' rating unchanged following equity issue, 27 Nov. 2025.
Vacse Full Rating Report, 10 Nov. 2025.
Bonnier Fastigheter Full Rating Report, 6 Nov. 2025.
NCR Comments: Heba Fastighets AB (publ) 'BBB' rating and outlook unchanged following revised expectations on financial development, 27 Oct. 2025.
Axfast Full Rating Report, 7 Oct. 2025.
Vacse AB (publ) 'A-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 7 Oct. 2025.
LSTH Svenska Handelsfastigheter AB (publ) long-term issuer rating raised to 'BBB'; Outlook stable, 3 Oct. 2025.
Stenhus Fastigheter i Norden AB (publ) 'BB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 29 Sep. 2025.
Strong financing climate for Swedish real estate companies in an uncertain environment, 16 Sep. 2025.
Platzer Full Rating Report, 16 Jun. 2025.
Analyst contact details:
Sean Cotten, +46735600337, sean.cotten@nordiccreditrating.com
Elisabeth Adebäck, +46700442775, elisabeth.adeback@nordiccreditrating.com
On
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