Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of Swedish real estate companies that focus on a variety of property types. Most are small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values of SEK 11bn to SEK 30bn.
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Expectations of positive net letting by end-2025 and more visible recovery in occupancy in 2026
Net letting has stabilised, with a slight decline during the quarter. We expect companies to take proactive measures to maintain occupancy levels. In the office segment, companies report early signs of increased search activity among prospective tenants, and we anticipate a more visible recovery in net letting by end-2025. We expect tenants to reassess space requirements in response to increased hybrid work, which will likely affect expiring contracts signed prior to the pandemic. We expect downsizing to offset some positive impacts from increased economic activity and rental growth through 2026. In our view, modern premises in central locations are well positioned to sustain occupancy and support rental growth through tenant adaptations. Despite challenging economic conditions, NCR-rated companies' net operating income margins have improved by 30bps on a rolling 12-month basis.
Occupancy rates among the property companies we rate range from 90% to 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties generally report rates at the higher end, while office and industrial/logistics managers tend to be at the lower end due to higher tenant turnover and cyclicality. Occupancy remained stable during the quarter, although performance varied. Stendörren and Intea posted the largest increases, with occupancy rates rising by approximately 1.9 percentage points and 1.2 percentage points, respectively. Intea’s improvement reflects the completion of two projects, while Stendörren benefited from strong net leasing performance and a decline in tenant bankruptcies. The most notable decrease occurred in the office segment, where Platzer’s occupancy fell by 90 basis points during the quarter. Other segments showed more stable trends.
Average remaining lease terms in the quarter ranged from a few months for managers focused on the residential segment to as much as 9.2 years for community service property manager Vacse, down from 9.8 years in the previous quarter ending 31 Mar. 2025. The significant decrease in average contract duration primarily reflects the acquisition of an agency headquarters in Karlskrona with a shorter lease term of six years, which offset the positive contribution from the acquisition of a district court in Borås with a 15-year lease. As there was no tenant rotation, we estimate the acquisition reduced average remaining lease terms by approximately 0.4 years. Most other NCR-rated real estate issuers saw only marginal changes to their average remaining lease terms during the quarter, supported by successful renegotiations and project completions.
Transactions set to validate book values, with relatively stable changes in property values ahead
Following easing inflation, the Swedish central bank reduced its key policy rate by 200bps between May 2024 and Jun. 2025. We expect that the floating rate to remain around 1.75%–2.0% for the rest of 2025, as the market assigns a high probability to a rate cut in November, while expectations for September lean towards an unchanged policy rate. In our view, financial risk profiles in the sector will improve slightly before stabilising over the next few years, as rental growth moderates and the cost of financing levels out. Since 2024, capital market financing has become more accessible at longer tenors, with significant new issuance at more normalised levels compared to the elevated spreads seen in 2022 and 2023. Although spreads widened temporarily following the US roll-out of tariffs in early Q2 2025 and the resulting uncertainty, they have since compressed and, in some cases, are below pre-announcement levels. Consistent with our previous expectations, issuers have become more growth oriented, initiating new projects and acquiring properties.
Total transaction volumes in Sweden reached SEK 34.0bn in the second quarter of 2025, about the same as a year earlier. In the second quarter of 2025, NCR-rated issuers acquired properties with a total value of over SEK 4bn. Notable transactions during the period included Svenska Handelsfastigheter’s acquisition of a big-box retail property near Malmö, with a property value of SEK 929m. Intea completed the acquisition of a jail facility in Västerås for SEK 620m and plans an estimated additional planned investment of SEK 2.2bn in 2025–2028. Vacse acquired two newly constructed community service properties: an agency headquarters in Karlskrona (SEK 250m) and a district court in Borås (SEK 320m). These acquisitions were completed through forward funding agreements entered in 2023 at fixed prices. Axfast strengthened its position in Hötorget (Stockholm) with the acquisition of Tranhuvudet 8 (undisclosed amount), supplementing last year's purchase of Vinkelhaken 10 and 18, and supporting further development of the area. Stendörren purchased four warehouse and industrial properties in Copenhagen for SEK 253m. NCR-rated issuers report stable or slightly lower yield requirements compared with previous periods, suggesting market stabilisation. So far in the third quarter, Stendörren, Svenska Handelsfastigheter and Intea have made property acquisitions.
Property values of NCR-rated real estate managers rose by approximately 40bps in the second quarter, primarily driven by Axfast and Svenska Handelsfastigheter, which each reported increases of about 1pp. Excluding these issuers, property values increased by 20bps. We expect property values to remain relatively stable, with upcoming transactions likely to validate book values.
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Interest coverage likely to level out as issuers approach their all-in financing costs
NCR-rated real estate issuers’ average debt maturity increased by 0.3 years in the second quarter of 2025. Vacse recorded the largest rise, up 1.6 years, following take-up of a NIB loan of SEK 550m with a tenor of 15 years in May and repayment of SEK 325m drawn from its revolving credit facility. Other NCR-rated issuers saw a modest extension in average debt maturity profiles. In line with our expectations, many NCR-rated issuers have capitalised on favourable financing conditions in both capital markets and in the banking system to refinance debt at improved terms, resulting in a 10bps decrease in average interest rates during the quarter. The average interest rate for our issuers was 3.3% at the end of the second quarter. There have been no material changes in hedging strategies, with issuers reporting an average interest-fixing period of three years in the second quarter. We expect our issuers to have average interest-fixing periods at these levels going forward.
Average interest cost is expected to stabilise near current levels as it aligns with the all-in financing cost for most issuers, depending on the extent of their hedging. We expect some temporary compression of average interest costs in the coming quarters due to refinancing of maturing debt at more favourable terms. However, we expect limited improvement in issuers' interest coverage given our outlook for modest rental growth and stable market interest rates.
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In the second quarter, Stendörren issued a senior unsecured bond of SEK 500m at 260bps to refinance a maturing bond, reducing the credit margin by 265bps. The company also refinanced SEK 2bn in bank loans at 50bps lower credit margins than before. Together, these measures will lower the company’s annual interest expense by SEK 25m. Stenhus Fastigheter refinanced loan agreements totalling SEK 476m ahead of maturity on significantly improved terms. Stenvalvet renegotiated bank loans at better terms and modestly extended its debt maturity profile.
Intea, Vacse and Stendörren raised equity capital of SEK 1,056m, 894m and 300m, respectively, during the quarter. Following these equity raises, Vacse's and Intea's NCR-adjusted net LTV declined by 4pp and 3pp in the quarter, respectively. The reduction in net LTV was partially offset by completed transactions during the period. The impact on Stendörren's net LTV was marginal, as acquisitions during the quarter resulted in net LTV standing at 54.7% at end of the second quarter, compared with 55.5% in the previous quarter.
Events after the second quarter
Acquisitions
Intea acquired a portfolio of prison properties and several special youth homes from Specialfastigheter for SEK 1.4bn. The transaction expands the company's presence in the Mälardalen region, where five of the prison properties are located, and enhances the company's property diversification. Nonetheless property concentration remains significant after the acquisition. All else equal, we estimate that the transaction reduces average remaining lease term by approximately 0.1 years. We expect Intea's property diversification and average remaining lease term to increase over time as additional projects are completed.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter acquired a property in Växjö in southern Sweden, from Eurocommercial, with Eko Stormarknad as the sole tenant. According to the seller, the acquisition price was SEK 158m, which implies a value per sqm of SEK 18,588—slightly below the average for the company's existing portfolio. In addition, the company purchased two properties totalling 11,000sqm in Stockholm and Skåne for an undisclosed amount.
Stendörren acquired a warehouse property in Finland for SEK 70m, with an annual net operating income of SEK 5.5m, implying an initial yield of approximately 7.9%.
Financing
Stenhus has launched a SEK 1bn commercial paper programme and plans to issue SEK 300m at inception. The company has a short average fixing period, and in our view, adding a volatile short-term funding source will increase its sensitivity to changes in market interest rates. Currently, we expect this to represent a small portion of the company’s funding and to reduce its average interest cost of the entity in the prevailing favourable financing environment.
Our quarterly comparisons from the first quarter of 2025 are available here.
Recent publications
Analyst contact details:
Gustav Nilsson, +46735420446, gustav.nilsson@nordiccreditrating.com
Elisabeth Adebäck, +46700442775, elisabeth.adeback@nordiccreditrating.com
On
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