Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of Swedish real estate companies that focus on a variety of property types. Most are small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values of SEK 11bn to SEK 30bn.
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Rising search activity in cyclical segments is expected to affect occupancy by 2026.
Operational developments continue to drive the credit quality of property managers. Net letting has generally stabilised, though the office segment still faces headwinds with negative net letting. Early signs indicate increased search activity among prospective office tenants. Several issuers note that, while overall demand remains subdued, interest in modern, centrally located premises is growing. This is reflected in ongoing new lease signings and project completions, particularly for high-quality, adaptable office space. In our view, modern premises in central locations are better positioned to sustain occupancy and support rental growth through tenant adaptations compared to those in secondary locations. We believe that longer contracts signed before the pandemic are more affected by downsizing considerations than those signed during or after the pandemic, as tenants have largely adapted to increased hybrid working. We expect this to offset some of the positive effects of increased economic activity and rental growth through 2026. NCR-rated issuers saw flat net operating income margins on a rolling 12-month basis, and we expect limited margin expansion among the issuers we rate.
Occupancy rates among the property companies we rate range from 90% to 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties generally report rates at the higher end, while office and industrial/logistics managers tend to be at the lower end due to higher tenant turnover and cyclicality. Occupancy remained largely unchanged to previous quarters. Stenhus had the largest increase in occupancy with 40bps in the quarter, reflecting acquisitions of fully let properties to Bilia on 3 Jul. 2025 as well as the divestment of a vacant project property. Platzer's occupancy showed flat development in the third quarter compared to a fall of 90bps in the previous quarter. The company's net letting was significantly negative of SEK 41m, of which SEK 30m relates to Nordea leaving its facilities in Lilla Bommen in March 2027. This was already incorporated in our expectations, and we expect to see a recovery in net letting as the economy recovers through 2026.
Average remaining lease terms in the quarter ranged from a few months for managers focused on the residential segment to as much as 9.0 years for community service property manager Vacse. The largest increase in average remaining lease terms of NCR-rated companies was recorded by Intea in the third quarter. Average lease terms increased by 0.4 years in the third quarter as a result of completion of the first phase of a train depot in Falköping and the extension of a contract with the Swedish Police Authority in Linköping. The company reported an average remaining lease term of 8.4 years in the third quarter. We expect lease terms to lengthen as projects are completed. Most other NCR-rated real estate issuers saw only marginal changes to their average remaining lease terms during the quarter, supported by successful renegotiations and project completions.
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Transactions set to validate book values, with relatively stable changes in property values ahead
Following easing inflation, the Swedish central bank reduced its key policy rate by 225bps between May 2024 and Sep. 2025. The central bank cut rates by 25bps at its September meeting, earlier than our previous expectation of a cut in November. This further supported the recovery in real estate managers' interest coverage. Along with tighter bond spreads and favourable financing conditions, this is expected to increase transaction activity. We expect the rate-cutting cycle has ended and that interest rates will stabilise near current levels, with the market assigning a high probability of a 25bps hike by end-2026. We do not expect this to materially affect the transaction market, as it is already reflected in issuers' acquisition considerations. Financial risk profiles in the sector are expected to remain stable over the next few years, as rental growth moderates and financing costs stabilise.
Total transaction volumes in Sweden reached SEK 32.8bn in the third quarter of 2025, a strong rebound of SEK 10.3bn compared with the third quarter of 2024. NCR-rated issuers acquiring properties during the quarter included Intea, Svenska Handelsfastigheter, Stendörren, Stenhus, and Stenvalvet.
Intea acquired a portfolio of prison properties and several special youth homes from Specialfastigheter for SEK 1.4bn. The transaction expanded the company's presence in the Mälardalen region, where five of the prison properties are located, and enhanced property diversification. Nonetheless, property concentration remains significant after the acquisition. We expect Intea's property diversification and average remaining lease term to increase over time as additional projects are completed.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter acquired four retail properties across Sweden, totalling SEK 504m. We expect the company to make further acquisitions at attractive yields, supporting cash flow generation. While these acquisitions increase property diversity, we expect tenant concentration to remain significant due to the company's focus on grocery-anchored properties.
Stendörren acquired industrial properties in Västerås amounting to SEK 80m and a warehouse property in Esbo (Finland) for SEK 70m. We expect these acquisitions to improve cash flow generation but have a marginal impact on the company's diversity and financial risk profile.
Stenhus took possession of Bilia properties valued at SEK 299m, acquired a property for SEK 295m on a 20-year triple net lease to Star Trading in Svenljunga, and announced a public cash offer for the remaining shares in Backaheden. We expect tenant diversity and cash flows to improve as the company rotates non-income generating properties in favour of fully let properties.
Stenvalvet acquired a police house in Kävlinge, reflecting the company's focus on the Swedish Policy Authority as a prioritised tenant. We expect the company's tenant composition to remain stable and its deleveraging trajectory to be maintained, even in the event of possible acquisitions.
Property values of NCR-rated real estate managers rose by approximately 20bps in the third quarter, primarily driven by Svenska Handelsfastigheter and Intea, which reported increases of 90bps and 70bps, respectively. Excluding these issuers, property values were flat, with some issuers recording gains and others declines. Stendörren recorded the largest relative decline of 20bps in the quarter, mainly due to revised expected cash flows following changes in indexation assumptions, resulting in a SEK 50m decrease in property values. We do not expect the company to record further property value declines, given favourable fundamentals in its operating segments, supported by an economic recovery in 2026. Platzer and Heba each recorded a 10bps decline in the quarter due to property-specific revaluations. We expect the transaction market to validate book values, which are likely to remain stable, supported by a favourable financing environment but offset by lower expected cash flows.
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Expectations of short-term improvements in interest coverage, but upside is limited
NCR-rated real estate issuers’ average debt maturity remained stable during the third quarter of 2025. Consistent with our previous expectations, many NCR-rated issuers took advantage of favourable financing conditions in both capital markets and the banking system to refinance debt on improved terms. The average interest rate among NCR-rated issuers was unchanged at 3.3% from the previous quarter and is expected to stabilise near current levels, as it broadly aligns with the all-in financing cost for most issuers, depending on their hedging strategies. We anticipate some temporary compression of average interest costs in the coming quarters due to early refinancing at more favourable terms, but expect limited improvement in issuers' interest coverage, given our outlook for modest rental growth and stable market interest rates.
During the third quarter of 2025, several property companies capitalised on improved market conditions to strengthen their capital structures and reduce financing costs.
Platzer issued new bonds totalling SEK 900 million at favourable levels, further diversifying its funding sources and lowering its average interest rate. The company also refinanced and extended several bank loans and capital market instruments, enhancing financial flexibility and modestly reducing interest expense. We view this positively, as it offsets some of the negative impact from challenging occupancy trends in its office properties.
Bonnier Fastigheter issued a new 5-year bond of SEK 500 million at 145bps above the reference rate, supporting the refinancing of maturing debt and maintaining a balanced debt maturity profile.
Stenhus completed a SEK 500 million senior unsecured green bond issue in September, using the proceeds to refinance existing green bonds and invest in energy efficiency projects. The bond was issued at 297.5bps, a reduction of 302.5bps in spread relative to the bond issued in 2023. The company also launched its commercial paper programme, with SEK 271 million outstanding at quarter-end. We expect the company to lower its funding costs, driving a strong rebound in interest coverage due to its short average fixed interest period. While this currently supports the recovery, the company remains sensitive to changes in market interest rates, and the introduction of a volatile short term funding source adds to its interest rate sensitivity.
Intea repaid a SEK 508m bond maturing in September and increased its outstanding commercial paper. We expect the company to replace some of its outstanding commercial papers with longer-dated loans to improve its debt maturity profile.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter has secured term sheets for all bank loans maturing in 2026, reflecting its efforts to strengthen its standalone liquidity profile under its revised financial policy. The company targets liquidity coverage of at least 12 months, which is in line with our expectations for an investment grade issuer. We subsequently raised the rating of Svenska Handelsfastigheter to 'BBB' from 'BBB-' reflecting our expectations of a sustained improvement in the company's financial risk management, supported by an improved standalone liquidity profile. The raised rating also incorporated indications of strengthened owner commitments.
In contrast to the second quarter of 2025, no NCR-rated issuers raised new equity capital in the third quarter. We expect some issuers may issue new equity to capitalise on transaction opportunities rather than to reduce financial leverage. Some of the issuers under our coverage has repurchased its own share, Heba repurchased SEK 150m of its own shares in the third quarter of 2025. Since May 2025, Heba has repurchased SEK 300m of its own shares and now holds about 6% of total shares. While share repurchases increase the company's leverage and place capital at risk for a decline in the share price, we do not expect the company to cancel the shares, and believe the company may use them for potential acquisitions or divest the shares. Stenhus repurchased SEK 6m of its own shares in the third quarter and has repurchased SEK 102m in total through 2025. We expect the company to repurchase additional shares and may cancel them to increase its net asset value per share.
Events after the third quarter
Acquisitions and divestments
Following the closing of the third quarter, Stenhus has finalised the sale of two development properties of SEK 235m, reducing leverage and improving economic occupancy to 94.7%, an increase by 190bps from the third quarter. Additionally, the company announced that it had obtained 97.4% of the shares in Backaheden following a public tender offer for the shares initiated on 16 Sep. 2025. We note that associated company Krona Public Real Estate announced on the 6 Nov. 2025 the intention to do a new equity issue of SEK 145m. Stenhus has subscribed to its pro-rate share of 21.5% in the entity (corresponding to SEK 31.2m) and guaranteed the issue amount not covered by others, totalling SEK 108m. The planned divestments of project properties, the tender offer for the shares in Backaheden and guarantee of equity issue in Krona Public Real Estate had already been incorporated into our expectations for the company and reflected in the rating action published on 29 Sep. 2025.
Bonnier Fastigheter announced the acquisition of a residential property in Uppsala, with closing expected on 1 Feb. 2026. The transaction is consistent with our expectation that the company will increase its exposure to the residential segment. While the acquisition will result in a modest increase in financial leverage, we believe the addition of more non-cyclical properties supports the company's business profile and cash flow stability.
Stendörren has acquired properties totalling SEK 278m in Helsinki, Uppsala and Stockholm since the end of the quarter, improving cash flow generation but increasing financial leverage. The acquisitions are consistent with our expectations for the company’s growth orientation.
Financing
Svenska Handelsfastigheter issued a SEK 500m green bond in October at 99bps above the reference rate. We expect the company to increase market-based financing and seek compliance with its new liquidity policy by refinancing bank debt in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Intea obtained a SEK 1bn green loan from the Nordic Investment Bank to finance the new justice centre in Kristianstad. We view the extension of the company's debt maturity profile positively, given its comparatively front-loaded debt maturities and weaker liquidity profile compared with investment grade peers.
Stenhus exercised its call option for early redemption of its SEK 600m senior unsecured bond, originally maturing in 2026, using proceeds from the SEK 500m bond issued in September. We view the proactive management of refinancing risk positively, but do not expect similar actions unless financing conditions improve further. The early refinancing reduced total interest costs, supporting the recovery in interest coverage.
Bonnier Fastigheter repurchased SEK 840m of its outstanding bond maturing in 2026, and subsequently exercised its call option to repurchase the remaining SEK 160m, which will be redeemed on 12 Dec. 2025. Settlement of the repurchase offer will occur on 2 Dec. 2025, the same date as the company's new SEK 1bn issue. We view the bond repurchase positively, as it was the last bond issued under standalone documentation, thereby increasing alignment of debt documentation.
Heba issued green bonds of SEK 600m and repurchased SEK 580m of bonds maturing in the first quarter of 2026, representing 77% of the outstanding amount. The refinancing of maturing bonds was in line with our expectation that the company's shortfall in committed liquidity coverage over the next 12 months from 30 Sep. 2025 would be temporary. We expect the company to maintain its track record of committed sources exceeding uses by proactively managing its refinancing risk.
Stendörren issued new green bonds totalling SEK 400m at a spread of 235bps over the reference rate. The company also proactively refinanced SEK 645m in bank loans, reducing credit margins by 40bps. The early refinancing will result in non-recurring costs of SEK 29m in the fourth quarter of 2025 but is expected to lower annual financing costs by SEK 35m from the beginning of 2026.
Our quarterly comparison from the second quarter of 2025 is available here.
Recent publications
Vacse Full Rating Report, 10 Nov. 2025.
Bonnier Fastigheter Full Rating Report, 6 Nov. 2025.
NCR Comments: Heba Fastighets AB (publ) 'BBB' rating and outlook unchanged following revised expectations on financial development, 27 Oct. 2025.
Axfast Full Rating Report, 7 Oct. 2025.
Vacse AB (publ) 'A-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 7 Oct. 2025.
LSTH Svenska Handelsfastigheter AB (publ) long-term issuer rating raised to 'BBB'; Outlook stable, 3 Oct. 2025.
Stenhus Fastigheter i Norden AB (publ) 'BB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 29 Sep. 2025.
Strong financing climate for Swedish real estate companies in an uncertain environment, 16 Sep. 2025.
Platzer Full Rating Report, 16 Jun. 2025.
Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB' rating unchanged following equity issue, 22 May 2025.
Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 14 May 2025.
Fastighets AB Stenvalvet 'BBB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 14 May 2025.
CA Fastigheter AB 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 11 Apr. 2025.
Comparison of Swedish industrial and logistics property managers, 1 Apr. 2025.
NCR comments: Vacse AB (publ) 'A-' rating unchanged following addition of new owner and equity issue, 1 Apr. 2025.
Contacts:
Gustav Nilsson, analyst, +46735420446, gustav.nilsson@nordiccreditrating.com
Elisabeth Adebäck, analyst, +46700442775, elisabeth.adeback@nordiccreditrating.com
On
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