Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) has revised the outlook on its ‘BBB-’ long-term issuer rating on Sweden-based niche lender Resurs Bank AB to positive from stable. The long-term rating, ‘N3’ short-term issuer rating, ‘BBB-’ senior unsecured issue rating, and the ‘BB’ Tier 2 issue rating have been affirmed.
Rating rationale
The outlook revision reflects our view that Resurs Bank is expected to stabilise, and improve, its performance following a period of sharply increased loan losses and reduced earnings, and that there is now a clearer path to resumed profitable growth, assuming continued development in line with our base-case expectations. The bank reduced its loan losses from 3.99% of net loans in 2024 to 3.03% in 2025, and we have raised our assessment of its loss performance, forecasting that losses will continue to decline gradually through 2028. Alongside improved earnings, we expect pre-provision income over risk exposure amount (PPI/REA) to approach 5.5% during the forecast period, this should bring return on equity back to at least 10% over the next three years, supporting internal capital generation.
However, while we see a material likelihood of this trajectory, it remains contingent on the bank achieving growth in both its established and new segments without compromising its risk appetite, including maintaining prudent underwriting and loss coverage. Consequently, we continue to apply a transition notch, waiting for evidence that the bank manages to deliver profitable growth and performance in line with our forecast.
We view positively that the bank's owners have extended the pause on dividend payments, despite capital ratios rising well above target levels. The bank reported a consolidated Tier 1 ratio of 17.9% as of end-2025 (consolidated ratio for Resurs Holding AB), compared with a target of 150–300bps above requirements, or a ratio of 13.1–14.6%. We expect the bank to resume dividends this year, though at half the policy level of 50%, with a return to full dividends in subsequent years. However, we do not expect the bank to pay extra dividends to optimise its capital position until it has completed its strategic reformation. We also believe that if earnings or asset quality fail to improve or deteriorate, dividends are likely to remain paused. This is reflected in a stronger assessment of capital.
The rating continues to reflect Resurs Bank’s strong earnings profile, sound funding and liquidity, and long track record. This is balanced against its higher-risk lending profile and the significant competitive and regulatory pressures in its sector. We have revised our assessment of credit and market risk downward, not primarily to indicate increased risk appetite, although we view SME lending as carrying higher risk than consumer lending due to larger ticket sizes, but to better reflect the relative risk compared with other financial institutions’ lending.
Positive outlook
The outlook is positive, reflecting our view that Resurs Bank's transition process, which began in 2024, is starting to yield results and supports a more favourable trajectory in the coming years. We expect the bank to gradually improve both earnings and loan losses, supporting capital ratios even as dividends are expected to resume. The outlook also reflects our expectation that the bank will return to growth and demonstrate its ability to regain some competitive advantage in its highly competitive markets. While we incorporate the macroeconomic uncertainty present in all the bank's geographies, we do not anticipate a significant recession in the coming years.
We could raise the rating to reflect improved and sustainable capital generation ability, in line with our base case forecast, combined with a proven ability to resume profitable organic growth without increased risk appetite.
We could revise the outlook to stable to reflect a materially deteriorating operating environment for consumer lenders, or to reflect increased loan losses, in line with development in 2023-2024. We could also revise the outlook to reflect a lack of improvements in earnings or growth, resulting in performance materially below forecast metrics.
| Rating list | To | From |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term issuer credit rating: | BBB- | BBB- |
| Outlook: | Positive | Stable |
| Short-term issuer credit rating: | N3 | N3 |
| Senior unsecured issue rating: | BBB- | BBB- |
| Tier 2 issue rating: | BB | BB |
Contacts:
Ylva Forsberg, analyst, +46768806742, ylva.forsberg@nordiccreditrating.com
Sean Cotten, lead senior analyst, +46735600337, sean.cotten@nordiccreditrating.com
Geir Kristiansen, analyst, +4790784593, geir.kristiansen@nordiccreditrating.com
The methodology documents used for this rating are NCR's Financial Institutions Rating Methodology published on 12 May 2025, NCR's Rating Principles published on 14 Feb. 2024 and NCR's Group and Government Support Rating Methodology published on 14 Feb. 2024. For the full regulatory disclaimer please see the rating report.