Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) has affirmed its 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating on Sweden-based niche lender Resurs Bank AB. The outlook is positive. The 'N3' short-term issuer rating, 'BBB-' senior unsecured issue rating, and 'BB' Tier 2 instrument rating have also been affirmed.
Rating rationale
The affirmation of the long-term rating and the continued positive outlook reflect our view that Resurs Bank's earnings and asset quality metrics will continue to improve in the coming years.
In the third quarter report for Resurs Holding AB, the holding company of Resurs Bank, the company announced its intention to pay a SEK 698m retroactive dividend, pending approval by an Extraordinary General Meeting in the fourth quarter. This corresponds to approximately 100% of NCR's expected net profit for 2026. According to the bank, the amount reflects 50% of net profit excluding extraordinary items from the full year 2024 to the third quarter of 2026, that is, the period during which dividends have been suspended. In our forecast from June this year, we expected the bank to pay a dividend of 25% of net profit for 2026 and 50% in 2027-2028, resulting in the Tier 1 ratio declining from 18.6% at end-2026 to 17.5% in 2028. In our updated forecast, we include the announced dividend, as well as a dividend equal to half of expected profit in the fourth quarter, and then 50% of net profit for 2027-2028. Combined with strengthening earnings and loan growth of 3-7% per year, this results in a Tier 1 ratio of 16.5% by end-2026, strengthening slightly to 16.8% by end-2028, or 16.1% if an additional Tier 1 instrument with a call date in 2028 is not refinanced.
Figure 1. Key credit metrics, 2023–2028e
| % | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026e | 2027e | 2028e |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net interest margin | 6.0 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| Pre-provision income/REA | 6.0 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 5.8 |
| Cost-to-income | 41.2 | 46.2 | 57.7 | 50.9 | 46.6 | 44.5 |
| Return on ordinary equity | 8.4 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 12.4 |
| Loan losses/net loans | 3.39 | 3.99 | 3.03 | 2.49 | 2.41 | 2.30 |
| Net stage 3 loans/net loans | 5.69 | 7.79 | 8.63 | 6.01 | 7.31 | 8.36 |
| Tier 1 ratio | 15.7 | 15.6 | 17.9 | 16.5 | 16.7 | 16.8 |
Source: company and NCR. e–estimate. REA–risk exposure amount. All metrics adjusted in line with NCR methodology.
We raised our capital assessment in June, reflecting our expectation that capital ratios would remain above the long-term target for some time. We believed that a substantial decrease in capital ratios would materialise later in the bank's journey to strengthen profitability and asset quality. Given the change in capitalisation, we have revised the capital assessment back down. Consequently, the previously applied transition notch is no longer needed. We consider the impact of the bank's continued strategic transition to be reflected in the potential upside to our assessment of the bank's performance indicators.
While we maintain the positive outlook, we now believe an upgrade is likely to occur somewhat later than we expected earlier this year. This reflects our view that, given lower capital ratios, we would like to see the bank make further progress in strengthening earnings metrics and providing greater assurance that these metrics will remain stable over time before raising the rating. However, improvements in our forecast earnings and loss performance metrics since June mean we believe this progress is sufficiently likely to maintain the positive outlook on the rating.
Loan loss provisions have improved faster than expected and are now expected to end at around 2.5% for the full year 2026, compared with 2.8% previously. In our updated forecast, we expect the loss ratio to decrease to 2.3% by 2028. However, stabilisation at around 2.5% would be manageable for the bank, provided earnings metrics improve in line with expectations.
While our 2026 earnings forecast is broadly unchanged, with minor changes mainly reflecting negative net gains and losses in the year-to-date third quarter report, we expect cost savings from the announced reduction in personnel from early 2027 to have a positive effect on earnings metrics. Nonetheless, our assessment of Resurs Bank's earnings remains unchanged at present, as we are waiting to see these improvements materialise and stabilise.
Positive outlook
The positive outlook reflects our view that, if Resurs Bank continues to improve its performance in both reported earnings and asset quality metrics, as well as showing greater stability and resilience, we are likely to raise the rating despite the decrease in capital ratios. It also reflects the bank's efforts to maintain an adequate position in its highly competitive markets, with the launch of new or updated business segments in 2026. While we incorporate the macroeconomic uncertainty present in all the bank's geographies, we do not anticipate a significant recession in the coming years.
We could raise the rating to reflect improved earnings metrics in line with our forecast, strengthening internal capital generation and providing a buffer to variations in macroeconomic conditions, combined with loan loss provisions stabilising around 2-2.5%.
We could revise the outlook to stable to reflect a lack of improvements in earnings or growth, resulting in performance materially below forecast metrics. We could also revise the outlook to reflect a materially deteriorating operating environment for consumer lenders, or to reflect increased loan losses, in line with development in 2023-2024.
Relevant research and rating actions
i) NCR Comments: Resurs Bank 'BBB-' rating and positive outlook unchanged following securitisation, 7 Jul. 2026.
ii) Resurs Bank AB (publ) outlook revised to positive; ‘BBB-’ long-term issuer rating affirmed, 18 Jun. 2026.
iii) Resurs Bank long-term issuer rating lowered to 'BBB-'; Outlook stable, 13 Mar. 2025.
iv) SME lending gains momentum among Nordic niche banks, 8 Sep. 2026.
| Rating list | To | From |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term issuer credit rating: | BBB- | BBB- |
| Outlook: | Positive | Positive |
| Short-term issuer credit rating: | N3 | N3 |
| Senior unsecured issue rating: | BBB- | BBB- |
| Tier 2 issue rating: | BB | BB |
Contacts:
Ylva Forsberg, analyst, +46768806742, ylva.forsberg@nordiccreditrating.com
Sean Cotten, lead senior analyst, +46735600337, sean.cotten@nordiccreditrating.com
Geir Kristiansen, analyst, +4790784593, geir.kristiansen@nordiccreditrating.com
The methodology documents used for this rating are NCR's Financial Institutions Rating Methodology published on 12 May 2025, NCR's Rating Principles published on 14 Feb. 2024 and NCR's Group and Government Support Rating Methodology published on 14 Feb. 2024. For the full regulatory disclaimer please see the rating report.