Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) has lowered its long-term issuer rating on Norway-based salmon farmer SalMar ASA to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'. The outlook is stable. At the same time, the short-term issuer rating was lowered to 'N3' from 'N2' and the senior unsecured issuer rating was lowered to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'.
Rating rationale
The rating action reflects that the company's deleveraging is taking longer than expected and that projected EBITDA margins are lower due to reduced salmon price expectations. While a weaker-than-expected performance recent years can partly be attributed to factors outside SalMar's control, such as disease outbreaks and periods of oversupply affecting prices, it nonetheless highlights the company's increased risk appetite following higher financial leverage from acquisitions over the past five years.
We now expect salmon prices to average around NOK 84 per kg through our forecast horizon, NOK 10 per kg lower than our expectations 12 months ago, but recovering from NOK 78 per kg in 2025. We continue to expect SalMar to prioritise debt reduction over the coming years, though at a slower pace than previously anticipated. This is supported by improved cash flows, driven by EBITDA margins recovering to about 30% (from about 22% in 2025). The higher projected margins also reflect expectations of increased harvested volumes and lower unit costs, resulting from sustainable improvements in biological performance and reduced feed prices. We forecast SalMar's net debt to decline by about NOK 4–5bn in 2026 as the company focuses on strengthening its balance sheet. Combined with improved cash flow, this is expected to increase its funds from operations (FFO)-to-net debt ratio to over 30% in 2026, from about 16% in 2025.
Stable outlook
The outlook is stable, reflecting our view that limited supply growth will support global salmon prices over the next three years. We expect vaccines and new technology to positively impact biological costs. Average prices are projected at around NOK 85/kg during this period, assuming a stable EUR/NOK exchange rate, though with significant seasonality. The outlook is based on expectations of improved margins to a level around 30% and a decline in net interest-bearing debt over the forecast horizon.
We could raise the rating to reflect a proven ability to maintain EBITDA margin above 30% together with FFO to net debt above 45%, both for a protracted period. We could also raise the rating if we see a lower cost level achieved by sustainable improvements in biological performance. We could lower the rating to reflect increasing biological problems, such as disease and sea lice, or and EBITDA margin below 20% or FFO-to-net debt below 20% for a protracted period
Related rating actions
i) SalMar 'BBB+' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook negative, 10 Apr. 2025
Related publications
i) Structural constraints driving salmon prices, 10 Mar. 2026.
| Rating list | To | From |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term issuer credit rating: | BBB | BBB+ |
| Outlook: | Stable | Negative |
| Short-term issuer credit rating: | N3 | N2 |
| Senior unsecured issue rating: | BBB | BBB+ |
Contacts:
Geir Kristiansen, analyst, +4790784593, geir.kristiansen@nordiccreditrating.com
Christian Yssen, analyst, +4740019900, christian.yssen@nordiccreditrating.com
Elisabeth Adebäck, analyst, +46700442775, elisabeth.adeback@nordiccreditrating.com
The methodology documents used for this rating are NCR's Corporate Rating Methodology published on 8 May 2023, NCR's Rating Principles published on 14 Feb. 2024 and NCR's Group and Government Support Rating Methodology published on 14 Feb. 2024. For the full regulatory disclaimer please see the rating report.