Global salmon prices are likely to remain strong for the next three years mainly as a result of low supply growth, Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) said in a report published today.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has had only a moderate impact on demand, but has driven increased feed costs, NCR said. Any increase in production costs will mostly be passed on to end-customers, the agency added.
Modelling, based on projected changes in global supply and international economic conditions, points to an average salmon price of NOK 101 per kg for 2023, NOK 18 per kg higher than in 2022. It also points to higher prices in both 2024 and 2025, the agency said.
"We believe that increased demand and higher production costs will support global salmon prices and more than compensate producers for any negative effect from a European recession. However, significant uncertainty remains, and our base-case scenario is that salmon prices will average NOK 90 per kg over the next three years," said NCR credit analyst Geir Kristiansen.
Contacts:
Geir Kristiansen, analyst, +4790784593, geir.kristiansen@nordiccreditrating.com
Gustav Nilsson, analyst, +46735420446, gustav.nilsson@nordiccreditrating.com