We expect that limited supply growth will support salmon prices over the next three years, according to a report published by Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) today. Historically, prices have remained resilient during adverse economic conditions. However, geopolitical and political risks temper our outlook. We therefore assume an average price for Norwegian salmon of NOK 83/kg in 2026, NOK 84/kg in 2027 and NOK 85/kg in 2028.
Barriers to entry are increasing due to restrictions on the number of licences in regions suitable for salmon farming and limits on the maximum biomass permitted per licence. "We believe that the increasing costs and investments needed to satisfy environmental requirements and improve salmon welfare will lead to increasing consolidation in the sector", said NCR credit analyst Geir Kristiansen. Moreover, large investments are required to scale up production, while positive cash flows usually take about three years to emerge. These barriers, partly biological, partly regulatory, and partly financial, explain the sector's high profitability.
Contacts:
Geir Kristiansen, analyst, +4790784593, geir.kristiansen@nordiccreditrating.com
Christian Yssen, analyst, +4740019900, christian.yssen@nordiccreditrating.com