Hot Swedish housing market faces new social distancing guidance
During the third quarter, the impact of COVID-19 on the overall Swedish housing market was barely noticeable, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. Housing prices showed a 21.9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from July to September, increasing their year-to-date (YTD) CAGR to 13.0%, which would exceed the highest 12-month CAGR recorded since early 2016. NCR has revised its 2020 growth projection to around 10% to reflect our expectation of a comparatively flat market in the fourth quarter because of more restrictive social distancing guidelines for most of the population.
Mortgage lending growth in the third quarter reflects rising prices and unusually high sales activity during the summer months. Mortgage loans increased by 4.1% in the first nine months (compared with 3.4% a year earlier). The rolling 12-month growth rate (5.5%) is at its highest level since end-2018 but remains low by historical comparison.
[wide-chart-1]
Handelsbanken was the most active mortgage lender during the third quarter with 19.3% of the marginal increase in mortgage loans and a 22% share of new lending for residential apartments. In the single-family housing market, Swedbank retained its top position with 21% of marginal loans for the quarter.
The chart above shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the last three, six, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses by clicking on the chart.
The largest banks maintain recent performance
Swedish mortgage lending has historically been dominated by Swedbank and Handelsbanken, which together account for 46% of the market. The two retained their top position in marginal lending during the third quarter and combined to take over 37% of the market compared with just 31% over the previous 24 months. By segment, each maintained its top position with Swedbank taking 21% of the single-family home market and Handelsbanken 22% of the apartment market during the quarter.
Swedbank, which saw a large decline in market share following money laundering allegations in 2019, had the largest increase in market share during the quarter compared with its performance in the previous 12 months (+3.3%). As has been the case since March 2020, the increase for Swedbank can be attributed in part to a reduction in lending by Swedish savings banks, which have had a lower share of the market since March having transferred more mortgage loans to Swedbank.
Outside the top four banks, the largest improvements in terms of market share were at Länsförsäkringar Bank, which took 11% of the marginal market including a 13% share of the single-family housing market, and SBAB, which took 10%, including a 13% share of apartment loans. Other noticeable positive trends were the steady increase in lending for Nordnet, which offers mortgage loans via Stabelo AB, and Landshypotek Bank, whose residential mortgage book continues to grow slowly. By far the largest decline during the quarter was seen by Danske Bank, which took only 1.2% of the marginal mortgage market after a period of growth in excess of its total share of 3.8%.
[chart-2]
Single-family house prices setting record highs, apartment recovery more modest
The HOX index improvements led to record highs in the main index and segments in most reported markets (see housing market chart) at end-September. Across all reported regions and property types YTD CAGRs are as high as they have been since market values dropped in the third quarter of 2017. The Stockholm and Gothenburg apartment markets remain somewhat below their record levels, but improved dramatically during the quarter. National housing prices increased at a CAGR of 13.0% in the first nine months, compared with 5.6% over the past 10 years. The largest noticeable pricing effect continues to be a surge in the single-family housing market (24.2% CAGR in July-September) though the residential apartment market has also turned upwards (18.0% CAGR in July-September).
NCR anticipates that domestic housing prices will remain difficult to project given continued low interest rates and borrowers' temporary ability to stop amortisation. However, we believe that a recent resurgence in COVID-19 and the introduction of more restrictive regional guidelines for social distancing covering nearly two-thirds of the population will cool the market over the remainder of the year.
The chart to the left shows mortgage market CAGR in Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side of the chart to see CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR intends to update this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q2 2020, is available here.
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