Swedish housing market rebounds at start of 2022
Following a slowdown at the end of 2021, the Swedish housing market was very active in the first quarter of 2022, with prices rising sharply, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for housing prices across the country was 18.8% in the quarter, a dramatic increase from 0.3% in the fourth quarter of 2021, but lower than the 33.1% CAGR seen in the first quarter of 2021. All markets except Stockholm saw house prices rise more than apartment prices. For the past 12 months, however, apartment price growth exceeded house price growth in all markets except Gothenburg. Malmö houses saw the sharpest CAGR of the quarter, at 26.99%.
Challenger banks continued to gain mortgage lending market share in the first quarter at the expense of the biggest banks. Nordea overtook Swedbank, which had maintained the largest marginal market share for new mortgage lending for some time. Nordea's market share was 17.3% in the quarter, compared with Swedbank's 16.5%. In total, the market share of the four largest banks in the first quarter of 2022 was 11.1pp lower than their share over the past 12 months.
The chart below shows market shares for the Swedish mortgage lending market in total and over the past 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. You can click the chart and select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses.
[wide-chart-1]
Challengers continue to take market share from top banks
Swedish mortgage lending has historically been dominated by the country's four largest banks – Swedbank, Handelsbanken, SEB and Nordea – which together control 72% of the market. The market leaders' share fell to 52% in the first quarter of 2022, a quarter-on-quarter decline and below their 63% market share over the past two years. Handelsbanken held 10% of the mortgage market in the first quarter of 2022, compared with its 21.5% total mortgage market share, and this has been driven by both single-family housing and apartment mortgages.
Beneficiaries of this development included SBAB and Landshypotek, which continued to outperform their historical market share. SBAB, in particular, grew within apartments, a shift in trend from its recent gains in single-family housing mortgages, up 5.4pp from its historical market share to 13.1%. Landshypotek continued to gain market share without serving the apartment market. At the end of the first quarter, Landshypotek held 10% of the single-family housing market, up 4.7pp from its share over the last year. Among the four largest banks, only Nordea gained market share in the quarter, in both single-family housing and apartments. However, its largest gain was in apartments, with Nordea ending the quarter at 20.2%, compared with 14.8% for its total apartment mortgage market share.
[chart-2]
Interest rate increases likely to constrain growth for the full year
Housing prices have picked up since the end of last year, rising sharply in the first quarter of 2022. House prices, in particular, saw significant growth in the quarter, far outpacing the longer-term CAGR in all markets except Stockholm. For the whole country, house prices rose by 21.4% in the quarter, compared with 7.33% over the last twelve months, whereas apartment prices rose by 14.3% (7.7%). House prices declined significantly in the fourth quarter of 2021 in most markets, and we believe the increases seen now are partly a response to that and partly seasonal trends.
NCR's expectation for the full year 2022 was continued growth but less volatility compared with 2021. Although prices rose significantly in the first quarter of 2022, growth was lower year on year. However, market interest rates have started increasing rapidly compared with the low levels of recent years, and we expect this to impact the housing market. Having become accustomed to interest rates only varying by a few basis points, many households will now consider their monthly expenses more carefully, we believe. Given the rising inflation and high energy prices, this would effectively limit willingness to increase mortgages and would constrain price growth. We therefore do not expect a major decline in housing prices, but rather more modest growth, or, in the short-term, moderate price falls in some markets.
The chart to the left shows CAGR for the mortgage market in Sweden and its major cities. You can change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side to view CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR updates this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q4, 2021, is available here.
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