Housing market slows down in fourth quarter
The Swedish housing market slowed in the fourth quarter of 2021, partly as a result of the re-introduction of social distancing, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for prices was only 0.3% in the fourth quarter, compared with 10.5% for 2021 as a whole. The slowdown was seen in most markets, with the exception of Stockholm, which had a CAGR of 8.3% for houses and 12.5% for apartments. The slowdown capped a weaker second half of the year, following an exceptionally strong spring. While prices of single-family homes grew at an annual rate of 0.5% in the second half of the year, they still grew by 11.4% for the full year. For apartments, the growth rates were 5.8% and 9.2%, respectively. The slowdown was greater than the 6.6% CAGR we anticipated in the second half, at 2.3% for the period.
Challenger banks gained mortgage lending market share in the fourth quarter at the expense of the biggest banks. Swedbank maintained the largest market share for mortgage lending in the fourth quarter, at 19.0%, but SEB's and Handelsbanken's share fell compared with earlier in the year. In total, the market share of the four largest banks in the fourth quarter was 10pp lower than their share of the market for the full year 2021.
The chart below shows the share of the Swedish mortgage lending market in total and over the past 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses by clicking on the chart.
[wide-chart-1]
Challengers continue to take market share from top banks
Swedish mortgage lending has historically been dominated by the country's four largest banks – Swedbank, Handelsbanken, SEB and Nordea – which together control 72% of the market. The market leaders' share fell to 62% in the fourth quarter of 2021, a quarter-on-quarter decline and below their 63% market share over the past two years.
Beneficiaries of this development included SBAB and Landshypotek, which continued to outperform their historical market share, with SBAB continuing to shift its focus onto single-family housing loans. In the fourth quarter, SBAB held 9.8% of the single-family housing mortgage market (compared with 6.6% of this market for the full-year 2021), 11.4% of the apartment market (12.4%) and 10.3% of the total mortgage market (8.6%). Landshypotek continued to gain market share without serving the apartment market. During the fourth quarter, Landshypotek held 5% of the single-family housing market, compared with 4.2% over the last two years, corresponding to a 3.2% share of the overall mortgage market.
[chart-2]
House prices decline as apartments continue price growth
Housing price growth in the fourth quarter showed mixed results, with apartments continuing to increase in price across all markets, particularly Stockholm, while prices for houses decreased in all markets except Stockholm. The largest price decline was seen for houses in Malmö, which decreased by 14%, annualised quarter on quarter. We believe the decline in housing price growth rates was due to a combination of seasonal trends and an adjustment of the significant increases seen earlier in the year, as many households sought larger accommodation.
NCR's expectation for the second half of 2021 was that markets would adjust from the significant growth earlier in the year and align with the long-term 6.6% growth rate by year-end. Markets, however, did not cool as much as anticipated, and total growth in 2021 for all housing in Sweden was 10.5%, despite renewed regulatory amortisation requirements that came into effect in September. As a result, we expect capital markets to be relatively volatile in 2022, with the possibility of consumer sentiment being affected and the potential for interest rate expectations to impact mortgage markets. However, we believe housing price performance in 2022 will be less volatile than in 2021, with prices likely to come in below the 6.6% historical average CAGR for the market.
The chart to the left shows the CAGR for the mortgage market in Sweden and its major cities. You can change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side to view CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR updates this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q3, 2021, is available here.
On
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