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The Swedish mortgage market (Q2, 2021)

Swedish housing market settles down
During the second quarter of 2021, the Swedish housing market slowed from the record growth rates seen since May 2020, but maintained positive growth in all markets, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The market's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 7.2% in the second quarter compared with 33.1% in the first. Over the past 12 months, housing prices have appreciated by 16.8% nationally, while prices of single-family homes have risen by 20.1%, and apartments by 11.5%. Over the past year, Swedish housing price growth has trended at 10.2pp above the historical 6.6% CAGR of the national housing market.

The biggest movers in terms of market share were Swedbank and mortgage lender, SBAB. Swedbank's 19.4% market share for the quarter far outpaced its two-year share of 14.6%, showing improvement towards its 23.1% historical total share. After a strong first quarter, when it took a 15.2% share, SBAB accounted for only 5.9% of marginal market growth in the second quarter.

The chart below shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the past three, six, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses by clicking on the chart.

SwedbankSHBSEBNordeaSBABLF BankDanskeSkandiabankenSp SkåneLandshypotekSp NordSp SjuhäradNordnetRekarneSörmlandsVarbergs SpWestra WermlandFalkenbergs SpSp AlingsåsÖlandsSp LidköpingOther banks05101520
Market shareLast 3 monthsLast 6 monthsLast 12 monthsLast 24 monthsResidential mortgage: market shares through Jun. 2021 (%)Market share (%)Based on data from Statistics Sweden.Residential mortgageSingle-family housingApartments

Swedbank leads improvement among dominant banks
Swedish mortgage lending has historically been dominated by the country's four largest banks – Swedbank, Handelsbanken, SEB and Nordea – which together account for 72% of the market. Swedbank's rebound led to the top banks taking 68% of the market in the second quarter compared with 61% of the marginal market share over the past two years.

Outside the top four banks, the largest market share improvements during the second quarter came from Skandiabanken, which took 6.2% of the apartment market (compared with its 2.7% share of apartment loans), and Landshypotek Bank, which increased its share of the single-family housing market (it does not lend to apartment owners) by capturing 4.4% of the marginal market (compared with a 0.6% share of housing loans). Nordnet (partnering with Stabelo) and Borås-based Sparbanken Sjuhärad also saw material improvements in their market shares in the second quarter, but remain minor competitors at the national level.

TotalHousesFlats05101520
10 years5 years3 years1 year6 months3 monthsCAGR of Swedish housing price indicesthrough Jun. 2021 (Sweden)CAGR (%)Based on data from ValueGuard HOX Index.SwedenStockholmGothenburgMalmöCollege Towns

Single-family housing remains key market driver
In total, housing prices came off record highs in May 2021, but the index for apartment prices made modest gains to reach a record high at end-June. All HOX index markets reached record highs in May-June 2021. Only time will tell if the slowdown in June 2021 is seasonal or a sign of normalisation of the housing market as it anticipates renewed amortisation requirements and a reduction in the impact of COVID-19. However, we note that since 2010 the HOX index has fallen in June in almost every year except 2013 and 2020, having only limited correlation with the direction of the wider market by year end.

NCR continues to believe that the pace of housing price growth will align itself with the market's long-term 6.6% growth rate in the second half of 2021, in part due to the continued rollout of COVID-19 vaccines, but also due to renewed amortisation requirements that come into effect in September. This would lead to an overall annual growth rate of about 13% (10% for apartments and 15% for houses).

The chart to the left shows mortgage market CAGR in Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side of the chart to see CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR updates this interactive information quarterly.

The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q1, 2021, is available here.