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The Swedish mortgage market (Q3, 2021)

Swedish housing market settles down
During the third quarter of 2021, the Swedish housing market slowed further from the record growth rates seen since May 2020, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The market's compound annual growth rate (CAGR) was 4.3% in the third quarter compared with 12.4% over the 12 months to end-September. Similar slowdowns can be seen in the prices of single-family homes (4.8% in the third quarter, 15.1% in the 12 months to September) and apartments (3.5% in the third quarter, 7.9% in the 12 months to September). The slowdown was greater than we previously anticipated, but we expect improvements in the course of the fourth quarter and maintain our expectations of a 6.6% CAGR for the second half of 2021, in line with the historical average for the national housing market.

The biggest banks held on to their leading market shares in the third quarter. Swedbank's 19.5% market share for the quarter far outpaced its two-year average share of 15.3%. Conversely, Danske Bank continued its relatively slow pace of growth with only 1.0% of the market in the quarter, and a 1.5% share for the 12 months to September, compared with its total share of 3.7%.

The chart below shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the past three, six, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses by clicking on the chart

SwedbankSHBSEBNordeaSBABLF BankDanskeSkandiabankenSp SkåneLandshypotekSp NordSp SjuhäradNordnetRekarneSörmlandsVarbergs SpWestra WermlandFalkenbergs SpSp AlingsåsÖlandsSp LidköpingOther banks05101520
Market shareLast 3 monthsLast 6 monthsLast 12 monthsLast 24 monthsResidential mortgage: market shares through Sep. 2021 (%)Market share (%)Based on data from Statistics Sweden.Residential mortgageSingle-family housingApartments

Swedbank maintains its leading market position
Swedish mortgage lending has historically been dominated by the country's four largest banks – Swedbank, Handelsbanken, SEB and Nordea – which together account for 72% of the market. As was the case in the second quarter, the market leaders accounted for 68% of the market in the third quarter, improving on their 62% of the marginal market share over the past two years.

Outside the four biggest banks, the largest market share improvements during the third quarter came from SBAB, which took 9.4% of the single-family housing market (compared with its 6.6% total market share), and Skandiabanken, which took a significantly larger share of the apartment market in the quarter (5.4%) than its total market share of 2.8%. Landshypotek and Nordnet (partnering with Stabelo) also saw material improvements in their market shares in the third quarter, but remain minor competitors at the national level.

TotalHousesFlats02468101214
10 years5 years3 years1 year6 months3 monthsCAGR of Swedish housing price indicesthrough Sep. 2021 (Sweden)CAGR (%)Based on data from ValueGuard HOX Index.SwedenStockholmGothenburgMalmöCollege Towns

Single-family housing remains key market driver
Housing price growth slowed in the third quarter, after reaching a high earlier in the year in all markets. However, all markets (except Malmö flats, which peaked in May), continued to see rising housing prices until September, led by Stockholm houses with 8.4% annualised growth quarter on quarter. We believe the slowdown in growth rates in the third quarter represented a combination of seasonal trends and a return of normalisation in the housing market as borrowers anticipated renewed amortisation requirements and an easing in the impact of COVID-19.

NCR continues to believe that the pace of housing price growth will align itself with the market's long-term 6.6% growth rate by end-2021, despite renewed regulatory amortisation requirements that came into effect in September. We expect that price growth will pick up in the remainder of the year as the economy normalises in response to reduced social restrictions due to COVID-19 and high vaccination rates.

The chart to the left shows mortgage market CAGR in Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side of the chart to see CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR updates this interactive information quarterly.

The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q2, 2021, is available here.