Falling prices imply negative growth over the past year
Prices continued to fall sharply across the Swedish housing market in the third quarter of 2022, with prices lower than a year ago in all markets, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for housing prices across the country was -21% in the quarter, continuing the downward trend from the second quarter, with an annualised decrease of 21% in the last six months. The continued price decline in the third quarter has led to negative annualised price growth in all markets compared with a year ago. In all markets except Gothenburg apartments, however, prices remain above pre-pandemic levels three years ago.
This quarterly commentary includes funds for the first time, and, although their total market share remains moderate, they are growing, accounting for 6.1% of the market in the quarter. Continuing the trend from earlier quarters, Nordea gained market share, with 18% of the market in the third quarter, compared with its 13.7% total market share. SEB had only a small market share in the quarter, even declining by 2.9% in the apartment mortgage segment. Danske Bank's market share declined in the quarter, both in houses and apartments. Among challenger banks, it was primarily Länsförsäkringar Bank that increased its market share in the quarter, both for houses and apartments.
The chart below shows the overall market share of Swedish mortgage lenders, as well as their market share over the past 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. You can click the chart and select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses.
[wide-chart-1]
Funds emerging as major contender, while SEB and Danske Bank see market share decline
Mortgage lending in Sweden has historically been dominated by the country's four largest banks – Swedbank, Handelsbanken, SEB and Nordea – which together control 71% of the market. Their share has, however, been gradually declining for some time. In the third quarter of 2022, the market leaders' combined share was 55%, slightly above the market share for the past six and twelve months. The decline is largely attributable to SEB, with a steadily declining market share now at 13.4% and accounting for only 1.9% of the market in the third quarter. Nordea, now the third-largest lender, is continuing to grow in both houses and apartments, and the market leaders – Swedbank and Svenska Handelsbanken (SHB) – improved their market share in the quarter compared with the past 12 months.
Among the challengers, SBAB and Landshypotek, which have particularly benefitted from the market leaders' declining market share, both fell back in the quarter. This was especially true of SBAB, which controlled 6.3% of the market in the quarter, compared with its total market share of 8.5%. Other, smaller banks had 13.1% of the market in the quarter, 97bps over their total market share. Funds have emerged as a contender to traditional mortgage banks, with 6.1% of the market in the quarter, in line with their market share over the past half year, but well above their total market share of 1.2%.
Both SEB and Danske Bank saw their market share decrease in some segments in the quarter. While SEB's market share only decreased for apartments, Danske Bank's overall mortgage market share fell by 2.6% in the period, driven by an 8% decrease in apartments.
[chart-2]
Further price falls expected in remainder of 2022
Malmö houses led the way in the third quarter's price decreases, with CAGR of -28% compared with -23% for house prices across Sweden. The smallest annualised price decrease in the quarter was in Stockholm apartments, at 14.3%, while, across markets, house prices saw the steepest decline. Although the large 100bps repo rate hike by the Swedish central bank did not take place until late September, interest rate hikes were already priced into mortgage rates, as well as household budget expectations. Persistently rising inflation, at 9.7% (excluding interest) in September, combined with a gloomy economic outlook, has led to a slowdown in the housing market, as seen in the growth of the overall mortgage market. Quarterly growth in mortgage market volumes has declined sharply in the past months, and is down to levels rarely seen since 2014. Growth in apartment mortgage volumes have not been this low since late 2012.
We view the fall in housing prices partly as a reaction to the very sharp price increases during the COVID-19 pandemic, and note that nearly all markets have some headroom left under pre-pandemic price levels. However, price increases in the years leading up to the pandemic were supported by exceptionally low interest rates. Consequently the price decrease, in our view, is not only based on a market correction for the past three years, but also a shift in expectations of housing costs. We therefore believe it will take some time for households, and the market, to adjust to a new equilibrium. Continued interest rate increases, combined with uncertainty over inflation and energy costs, will likely continue to push prices down for some time. We continue to believe that the price decrease is not indicative of an impending market crash, but note that the longer uncertainty remains, the longer it will take for the market to stabilise and return to natural, long-term price growth. NCR expects prices to continue declining throughout the second half of 2022 and believes we will have to wait well into 2023 for prices to level out, allowing for some regional differences.
The chart to the left shows CAGR for the mortgage market in Sweden and its major cities. You can change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side to view CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR updates this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q2, 2022, is available here.
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