EDITOR'S NOTE (4 Oct. 2022): Housing price data has been updated to correct errors.
Prices fall across the market in the second quarter of 2022
Prices declined sharply across the Swedish housing market in the second quarter of 2022, following sharp rises in the first quarter of 2022, according to the latest figures from ValueGuard's HOX index. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for housing prices across the country was -21.3% in the quarter, a dramatic reversal from the 18.8% increase in the first quarter of 2022 and implying a CAGR of -3.3% for the first half of the year. All markets saw significant price decreases in the quarter, and nearly all of them have seen prices fall over the past six months. However, over the last 12 months CAGR is close to zero at the national level for houses and apartments combined.
Challenger banks continued to make gains in mortgage lending in the second quarter at the expense of the biggest banks. SEB, in particular, appears to have changed its mortgage lending strategy and saw a sharp decrease in market share in the quarter, 11.5pp lower than its total market share and 7.5pp lower than its share over the past 12 months. Nordea continues to stand out among the largest banks, with 17.1% of the mortgage lending market in the quarter, compared with its total market share of 13.8%, and has led the market in lending for apartments over the last 12 months.
The chart below shows the overall market share of Swedish mortgage lenders, as well as their market share over the past 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. You can click the chart and select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, apartments and houses.
[wide-chart-1]
SEB's market share declines sharply as challengers continue to make gains
Mortgage lending in Sweden has historically been dominated by the country's four largest banks – Swedbank, Handelsbanken, SEB and Nordea – which together control 72% of the market. Their share has, however, been gradually declining for some time. In the second quarter of 2022, the market leaders' combined share was 56%, a quarter-on-quarter increase, but below their 61% market share over the past two years. The decline is largely attributable to SEB, which has fallen to fourth place in mortgage lending, with a steadily declining market share now at 13.6%. SEB accounted for only 2.1% of the market in the second quarter, more than 11pp below its overall share of lending for houses and apartments. Nordea, now the third-largest lender, is continuing to grow in both houses and apartments, and the market leaders – Swedbank and Svenska Handelsbanken (SHB) – improved their market share in the quarter compared with the past 12 months.
Among the challengers, SBAB and Landshypotek have benefitted recently from the leaders' declining percentage of the market. In the quarter, however, SBAB remained in line with its total market share, while Skandiabanken made significant gains, together with Landshypotek. Skandiabanken held 7.5% of the apartment market in the quarter, 4.6pp higher than its total market share, and Landshypotek, which only lends to single-family homes, increased its share of the housing market by 5.6pp compared with its total share.
[chart-2]
Further price falls expected in remainder of 2022
The Stockholm market saw the biggest drop in prices in the second quarter of 2022, with a CAGR of -28.1% and -29.1% respectively for houses and apartments, as interest rates were raised abruptly in response to soaring inflation. Prices were down across markets, with Malmö somewhat less affected. Malmö apartments and houses, and houses in university towns were the only segments to report growth in the year to date, while all other markets prices have fallen so far in 2022. However, price growth is relatively flat for the last 12 months and prices are still significantly above pre-pandemic prices three years ago. We therefore believe that at least part of the downturn is due to a correction of the extraordinarily hot property market during the COVID-19 pandemic, spurred on by the temporary removal of mortgage amortisation requirements and long-term expectations of low rates.
Before the start of the year, NCR's expectation for the full year 2022 was of continued growth but less volatility than in 2021. We have revised this expectation due to the clear shift in trends that followed the macroeconomic changes in the spring. Inflation has remained exceptionally high in recent months, which, combined with rising interest rates and high energy prices, is putting a significant dent in many households' budgets. This is effectively limiting willingness to increase mortgages and consequently hampering housing price growth. Statistics Sweden is reporting the highest average mortgage rates since 2014, and both household and business confidence indicators are pessimistic. However, unemployment remains low and Swedish GDP is continuing to grow. This strengthens our belief that the decline in price growth is not indicative of an impending market crash but rather of a correction associated with buyers and sellers not yet accepting the 'new normal' of higher costs of living. NCR expects prices to continue declining throughout the second half of 2022 and believes we will have to wait well into 2023 for prices to level out, allowing for some regional differences. We do, however, remain aware that there is significant uncertainty and, given that homeowner sentiment is as important as macroeconomic indicators, the market is difficult to predict.
The chart to the left shows CAGR for the mortgage market in Sweden and its major cities. You can change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side to view CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR updates this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q1, 2022, is available here.
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Ylva Forsberg
Swedish-mortgage