Swedbank continues to lose mortgage market shares
Year-end data shows that Swedbank's decline in its share of the Swedish mortgage market has accelerated during the fourth quarter. Swedbank's continued reduction can be attributed in part to revelations about alleged money laundering and margin pressure from new competitors. However, NCR notes that growing mortgage books at savings banks is also affecting Swedbank's volumes.
Over the same period, Sweden's housing prices declined somewhat, driven by lower prices for single-family homes, in particular in Malmö and Sweden's mid-sized cites.
The chart below shows market shares for the Swedish housing market in total and over the last 3, 6, 12 and 24 months. You can select the fields to display and switch between the entire market, flats and houses by clicking on the chart.
[wide-chart-1]
Handelsbanken tops the market in 2019
The Swedish mortgage market has historically been dominated by Swedbank and Handelsbanken which together have 46% of the market. However, during 2019 the market leaders combined for 29% of the marginal market. Handelsbanken had the higher share of the overall market with 16.8% during 2019, compared to its 22.2% total market share for Swedish mortgages. Runners up were SEB and Nordea with 15.0% and 13.8%, respectively, while Swedbank secured 12.2% during the year.
Handelsbanken's marginal share increased towards the end of 2019, while Swedbank's loss of market share accelerated. Swedbank's continued reduction can be attributed in part to revelations about alleged money laundering and margin pressure from new competitors. However, NCR notes that growing mortgage books at savings banks is also affecting Swedbank's volumes.
Savings banks have historically transferred large volumes of mortgage loans which are financed by Swedbank Mortgage's covered bonds. Inflows of deposits and access to capital market financing is increasing savings banks' capacity to finance their own mortgages. During the fourth quarter, savings banks (as defined by Statistics Sweden) managed a 6.1% of the marginal market compared to 2.1% total market share. For the single-family housing market this share was even higher, 8.5% compared to 2.6% total market share.
In the single-family house market, Länsförsäkringar Bank (LF Bank) took home the largest share of the market during 2019 with 15.3%, increasing its total share to 7.7%. In addition, Skandiabanken, Landshypotek Bank, Varbergs Sparbank and Sparbanken Skåne continue to materially grow their housing loan shares with 19.6% over the last 3 months compared to their 3.8% overall share.
Handelsbanken had the highest share of the flat market in 2019, with 20.7%, and increased its share during the fourth quarter to 23.8%. SEB and Nordea also improved existing market shares for mortgage loans to flats during the fourth quarter. While flat loans are only a third of the overall mortgage market, it is notable that flats comprise 45% of new mortgage loans since 2011 due to significant increases in value as well as high levels of newly produced apartment housing across Sweden.
[chart-2]
Another growing challenger of note is that "the field" (banks not specifically named in Statistics Sweden's dataset) took a 7.1% share of the residential mortgage market the last 3 months (compared to 4.8% overall share in the third quarter of 2019). This residual group includes new participants, but also a number of savings banks not specifically included by name in the data.
Housing price growth is now firmly above ten-year averages
Valueguard's HOX index showed a moderation in the Swedish mortgage market during the fall. During 2019 the national housing market grew at rates similar to its ten-year average in total (4.5% in 2019 vs 5.2% over 10 years), as well as for homes (4.4% vs 4.7%) and flats (4.6% vs 6.3%). Declines in housing prices during the fourth quarter were driven by falling prices for single-family homes for Sweden as a whole, particularly Malmö and Sweden's mid-sized towns. NCR anticipates Sweden's house prices remain stable during 2020 with growth from 3-5%.
The chart to the left shows the cumulative average growth rate (CAGR) for Sweden and its major cities. Change the market by selecting from the options on the right-hand side of the graph to see the CAGR over a variety of periods. NCR intends to update this interactive information quarterly.
The analysis of the Swedish mortgage market from Q3, 2019, is available here.
On
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Sean Cotten
Swedish-mortgage