Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of Swedish real estate companies that focus on a variety of property types. Most are small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values of SEK 12bn to SEK 30bn.
Swedish real estate remains resilient, but not immune, to ongoing geopolitical risks
The macroeconomic and geopolitical environment has become more uncertain in recent months, but the baseline outlook for NCR-rated Swedish real estate management companies remains broadly stable. We continue to expect a gradual improvement in Sweden’s economic growth in 2026, driven mainly by stronger domestic demand and household purchasing power rather than external trade. In particular, the recovery in private consumption from recent weak levels is supportive for tenants exposed to discretionary spending. Geopolitical tensions have nevertheless increased uncertainty, primarily through potential impacts on confidence, energy markets and global inflation. This reduces visibility for tenants and investors, even as the domestic-demand-led base case for the Swedish economy remains supportive.
Public investment remains a key support factor for economic activity. Spending related to defence, security, and transport infrastructure is expected to remain elevated, reflecting both domestic priorities and the broader European security environment. Increased public investment supports employment and activity across related sectors, as well as demand for office, logistics, and mixed‑use properties.
Conditions in the Swedish real estate market are expected to stabilize further in 2026. Transaction activity is supporting existing asset valuations, reducing the risk of material valuation declines and supporting balance‑sheet visibility for rated issuers. In addition, letting activity is expected to gradually improve. Vacancy rates, particularly in the office segment, remain elevated, particularly on the outskirts of major markets, but are expected to peak during 2026. Demand continues to be strongest for prime assets, while secondary locations face a slower recovery. Overall, we expect a gradual normalization in occupancy rather than a sharp rebound.
Inflation is expected to remain contained through 2026, approaching the central bank’s 2% target during 2027. As rental indexation is typically based on October inflation, we expect modest indexation in 2026 and a limited impact on 2027 revenues. The risk of an energy-related inflation shock cannot be ignored; however, a repeat of the 2022 shock appears unlikely. Any sustained energy disruption could nevertheless alter inflation expectations, reprice interest rates, and increase volatility in rent indexation and operating assumptions.
Downside risks remain elevated, mainly due to geopolitical uncertainty and global financial market volatility which could shake up financing conditions for real estate companies. Credit spreads have been remarkably low since the summer but could widen quickly if market sentiment sours. External factors could also weaken business confidence and delay improvements in occupancy, particularly in cyclical property segments. Credit quality therefore remains differentiated, with asset quality, location, leverage, and access to liquidity remaining key rating drivers.
Despite ongoing scepticism in equity markets regarding asset values, Swedish real estate remains comparatively well positioned relative to many European markets. This continues to support investor interest, even as global uncertainty weighs on sentiment.
NCR-rated issuers' occupancy expected to outperform the broader market
Occupancy rates among the property companies we rate range from approximately 90% for office property managers to nearly 100% for managers of residential and community service properties. The average occupancy rate rose by about 40bps in the second quarter of 2026, following flat performance in the previous quarter.
The improvement was primarily driven by AxFast, which reported a 2.1pp increase in contracted occupancy during the quarter. CA Fastigheter and Stendörren recorded increases of 1.2pp and 1.0pp, respectively. Other rated issuers saw only modest changes.
We view these occupancy trends as positive, with levels roughly in line with historical averages. Some issuers are recovering from cyclical lows, and we expect occupancy to remain stable going forward. Many issuers we cover have outperformed the broader market, which we consider indicative of an attractive value proposition. This is supported by successful lease renewals and renegotiations, resulting in no material changes to lease terms among NCR-rated companies in the second quarter.
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Positive fair value changes have offset the impact of increased debt on net loan-to-value
Fair value property value changes for NCR-rated real estate managers rose by nearly 50bps in the second quarter, mainly due to lower yield requirements. Svenska Handelsfastigheter recorded the largest fair value increase of 2.4% during the quarter, reflecting lower yield requirements on grocery-anchored retail properties and resulting in a total yield compression of 16bps since year-end 2025. Most NCR-rated property companies reported more modest positive fair value changes. Platzer was the only company with negative fair value changes in the quarter, reflecting lowered expectations for rental indexations in 2027 rather than higher yield requirements.
Despite geopolitical concerns that could affect interest rates and inflation, we expect transaction markets to continue to validate reported market values and anticipate yields will remain broadly stable in most segments over the near term. Positive fair value changes have so far helped offset the impact of higher debt uptake on net LTV figures. Since year-end 2025, NCR-rated issuers have increased gross debt by SEK 5bn, an increase of 5%.
As expected, key credit metrics remained unchanged from the previous quarter. We anticipate interest coverage will begin to decline towards end-2026, reflecting higher market rates and increased debt uptake.
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NCR-rated real estate issuers’ average debt maturity remained stable at 2.9 years at the end of the second quarter. These issuers continue to benefit from generally favourable financing conditions in both capital markets and the banking system. Issued volumes in the second quarter of 2026 were muted compared with the previous two quarters, when many issuers proactively refinanced outstanding debt in both the banking system and the bond market. We do not expect similar refinancing activity in the coming quarters, despite tight credit spreads, as most current debt has already been refinanced on improved terms. As a result, we expect most new issuance to be related to increased debt uptake for acquisitions and project development.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter was the largest issuer among NCR-rated issuers in the second quarter, issuing SEK 976m in two tranches of three and five years at reference rates of 90bps and 122bps, respectively. The proceeds were partly used to repurchase a bond maturing in October 2026 and repay bank debt, resulting in market-based financing representing 24% of total debt, in line with its financial target of 20–35%. We view the increase in market-based financing positively, as it improves the company's liquidity position and supports fulfilment of its liquidity policy, which was changed in 2025.
Interest coverage is expected to have peaked and is poised for a decline
NCR-rated issuers’ average interest coverage remained unchanged at 2.9x in the second quarter, while the average interest rate was stable at 3.3%. Favourable financing conditions have offset the impact of increased borrowing on debt-service capacity. However, we expect interest coverage to decline over the coming quarters and through 2027 as higher market rates gradually feed into issuers’ funding costs.
The average fixed-interest period was 2.8 years at the end of the second quarter, broadly in line with the wider market. Issuers remain exposed to gradual debt repricing as existing interest rate hedges and fixed rate financing mature. The expected decline in interest coverage reflects limited rental growth and increased borrowing to fund development, acquisitions, and share repurchases. Our base case assumes higher policy rates by the end of 2026 and into 2027, while geopolitical uncertainty may add volatility to floating market rates, credit spreads, and broader funding conditions.
The steep swap curve increases the cost of new long-term interest rate hedges compared with maintaining floating rate exposure, which may prompt issuers to be cautious about replacing maturing hedges. As a result, average fixed interest periods could shorten, raising sensitivity to changes in floating market rates.
Several issuers have limited headroom against the interest coverage thresholds of their negative rating drivers. Stendörren, Heba, and Bonnier Fastigheter currently have the least headroom among NCR-rated real estate issuers and are therefore most exposed if interest rates exceed our base-case assumptions. A deterioration beyond current projections could result in interest coverage falling below relevant rating thresholds.
By contrast, Vacse, Intea and Svenska Handelsfastigheter have greater headroom against their negative rating drivers, making their ratings more resilient to higher interest costs.
Intea’s current headroom may overstate its sustainable debt-service capacity because reported cash flow is boosted by annuity-based rents that recover initial investments in new developments during the first contractual period. This temporarily strengthens interest coverage before rental income returns to a lower, sustainable level. We therefore consider the company’s sustainable interest coverage to be weaker than current earnings suggest. If Intea maintains its current balance-sheet structure, the normalisation of these cash flows could reduce financial headroom over time.
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Events after the second quarter
Acquisitions and divestments
The third quarter has been relatively uneventful for NCR-rated issuers, with only minor acquisitions and divestments, as well as the closing of transactions announced in the second quarter. Svenska Handelsfastigheter acquired two properties in Borås and Vaggeryd for SEK 206m. The company plans to build two new Lidl stores on these sites, with completion expected in 2027. Given Svenska Handelsfastigheter's scale, we anticipate a marginal impact on its business and financial risk profile but view the increased tenant diversity positively.
Spreads remain attractive for capital market financing
Following the end of the second quarter, Intea issued SEK 2bn in senior unsecured bonds across three tranches: two five-year bonds priced at 105bps and 109bps above the reference rate, and a two-year bond at 60bps above the reference rate. The proceeds were used to repay a large bond maturing in Oct. 2026 and to support liquidity for financing its extensive development portfolio. We expect this to result in a temporary improvement in the company's debt maturity and liquidity profile, which will likely remain comparatively weaker than that of its investment grade peers due to significant cash outflows from the development portfolio.
Stenvalvet issued SEK 500m in senior unsecured bonds in the third quarter, priced at 115bps above the reference rate. Part of the proceeds were used to repurchase SEK 208m in bonds maturing in the third quarter.
Our quarterly comparison from the first quarter of 2026 is available here.
Recent publications
AxFast Full Rating Report, 10 Jul. 2026.
Stenvalvet (publ), 18 Jun. 2026.
CA Fastigheter Full Rating Report, 9 Jun. 2026.
NCR Comments: Platzer Fastigheter rating unchanged following share buy back announcement, 17 Apr. 2026.
NCR Comments: Svensk FastighetsFinansiering AB (publ) 'BBB+' rating and outlook unchanged following amended loan terms, 26 Mar. 2026.
Capital allocation choices may weaken credit quality of Swedish real estate issuers in 2026, 10 Mar. 2026.
Heba Full Rating Report, 3 Mar. 2026.
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Full Rating Report, 9 Feb. 2026.
Platzer Fastigheter Holding AB (publ) 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 3 Feb. 2026.
Share buybacks may weaken Swedish real estate managers' financial risk profiles in 2026, 17 Dec. 2025.
Contacts:
Gustav Nilsson, analyst, +46735420446, gustav.nilsson@nordiccreditrating.com
Sean Cotten, lead senior analyst, +46735600337, sean.cotten@nordiccreditrating.com
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