Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of Swedish real estate companies that focus on a variety of property types. Most are small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values of SEK 10bn to SEK 30bn.
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Average remaining lease terms vary from a few months for managers focusing on the residential segment to as much as 9.6 years in the case of community service property manager Vacse. Occupancy rates among the property companies we rate fluctuate between 90% and 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties are generally at the higher end of this range, while office and industrial/logistics managers are usually at the lower end owing to higher tenant rotation and cyclicality.
Despite higher vacancies for some issuers, occupancy rates are still strong. We see a limited impact on the business risk profiles of the real estate companies we rate. However, corporate defaults remain high in Sweden, and the worst-affected sectors are car retailers, restaurants and property developers. We expect occupancy rates in cyclical segments will keep declining over the next few quarters, before showing signs of recovery by end-2025. Tenants reassessing their facilities and location may result in occupancy stabilising at current levels rather than rebounding in the next few years. We regard residential and community service property managers with direct government funding as better positioned to maintain high occupancy in an economic downturn.
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The financial risk profiles of the companies we cover vary substantially. Net debt/EBITDA, a key credit metric, is generally comparatively weak among property managers with lower-yielding assets, such as residential properties. It is also often weak among companies that are growing rapidly, since net debt increases instantly, while any resulting EBITDA gain comes over the subsequent 12 months. This metric has seen improvements throughout 2023 and in early 2024 due to the moderation of growth ambitions by previously rapidly expanding property managers.
Following easing inflation, the Swedish central bank lowered its key policy rate by 175bps from May 2024 to February 2025. We expect that the floating rate will remain around 2.25% in the remainder of 2025. In general, we foresee improved financial risk profiles in the sector over the next couple of years as the cost of financing drops. Capital market financing has become increasingly accessible at longer tenors since 2024, with substantial amounts of new issues at more normalised levels relative to the elevated spreads of 2022 and 2023. We believe that some issuers that were relatively conservative in the past year due to uncertain market conditions will become more growth oriented. We anticipate both more project starts and increased activities related to acquisitions in 2025.
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In addition to a purely ratio-driven assessment, we take into account a real estate company's financial risk appetite when considering financial risk. Among other factors, we consider a company's average debt maturity and average fixed-interest period, as well as its average interest rate. As with key credit metrics, individual companies' approaches to financial risk vary significantly. We believe that differences in levels of interest rate hedging and debt maturity profiles have a marked impact on the pace and extent of change in interest coverage over time.
Higher interest rates have been clearly reflected in companies' interim reports. The average reported interest rate increased to 3.5% as of 31 Dec. 2024, compared with 2.9% two years earlier. Long-term market interest rates have fallen from their highs, and we have seen greater use of interest rate derivatives. We expect companies' average interest rates will decrease as market interest rates drop over the next few quarters, which should reduce pressure on interest coverage ratios.
Our quarterly comparisons from the third quarter of 2024 are available here.
Recent rating actions on real estate companies
On
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