Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) covers a wide range of Swedish real estate companies that focus on a variety of property types. Most are small in the context of the wider Swedish property sector, with NCR-adjusted portfolio values of SEK 11bn to SEK 30bn.
Strengthening economy set to support occupancy and cash flows
Sweden’s economy is expected to strengthen in 2026, supported by robust domestic demand and increased public investment. Household purchasing power should improve as lower inflation and stable wages bolster real incomes, while a temporary halving of food VAT from Apr. 2026 will further ease price pressures. As a result, consumption is projected to rebound, benefiting tenants reliant on discretionary spending. Public investment, focused on defence, security, and transport infrastructure, will reach its highest share of GDP since at least 1980, stimulating related supply chains. We believe stronger domestic demand will support letting activity in cyclical property types such as offices. Increased demand may also allow tenants to raise prices for consumers, increasing the risk of inflation surprises.
We believe the Swedish central bank will raise interest rates by 50bps in 2027 to prevent a resurgence of inflation. We expect inflation to remain low through 2026, approaching the central bank's long-term target of 2% by mid-2027. Rental contract indexation is typically based on October inflation, resulting in indexation of approximately 0.9% in 2026 and limited or no indexation impact on 2027 rents. Unlike the inflation shock in 2022, we expect greater visibility of inflationary pressures and reduced supply-chain uncertainty to support strong financing conditions without materially higher credit spreads. However, an increasingly uncertain global environment could lead to unforeseen events that may create shocks, potentially affecting economic activity and delaying the anticipated rebound in occupancy.
Occupancy rates among the property companies we rate range from 90% to 100%. Managers of residential, retail and community service properties generally report higher rates, while office and industrial/logistics managers tend to report lower rates due to greater tenant turnover and cyclicality. The average occupancy rate declined to 95.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 from 95.5% in the previous quarter.
Platzer reported the largest relative decline of 1.1pp in the quarter, reflecting previously announced vacancies and a change in the calculation of vacancy value, which now includes property tax. Contracted rents increased by SEK 2m during the quarter, as the acquisition of a fully let industrial property leased to Volvo with annual rent of SEK 13.7m offset the negative contribution from the like-for-like portfolio. In line with expectations for a recovery, the company reported SEK 14m in net letting, including projects, for the quarter.
Stenhus reported a 1.8pp increase in occupancy during the quarter, primarily due to the disposal of two vacant project properties. The company achieved positive net letting of SEK 3.2bn in the period. Additionally, Stenhus signed a 15-year lease agreement with Artifex Systems (Tata Group), which acquired the bankrupt operations from IAC Group. We view these developments as positive for reducing uncertainty around future occupancy and supporting cash flow stability.
CA Fastigheter reported a strong rebound in net operating income margin in 2025, rising to 63.5% from 56.6% the previous year. This improvement reflects a higher proportion of income from property management, while property development activity remained low in 2025.
Average net operating income margin among NCR-rated issuers was 75.1% in the quarter, down 10bps from the previous quarter on a rolling 12-month basis. We attribute this decline to seasonal effects and higher property management costs through 2025. We expect margins to remain broadly stable for the issuers we rate, with some margin expansion for issuers completing new builds and renovations.
Average remaining lease terms in the quarter ranged from a few months for managers focused on the residential segment to up to 8.8 years for community service property manager Vacse. Stenvalvet recorded the largest increase in average remaining lease terms among NCR-rated companies in the fourth quarter. Its average lease term rose by 0.3 years, reflecting successful contract renegotiations. Intea's average remaining lease term declined by 0.4 years, mainly due to the shorter lease duration of the portfolio acquired from Specialfastigheter. Most other NCR-rated real estate issuers saw only marginal changes in their average remaining lease terms during the quarter, supported by successful renegotiations. Overall, we believe income visibility remains solid.
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Transactions set to validate book values and cash flows to drive property valuation ahead
Total transaction volumes in Sweden reached SEK 54.8bn in the fourth quarter of 2025, with full-year volumes reaches SEK 163.8bn an increase of SEK 22.9bn from 2024 transaction volumes. Almost all NCR-rated issuers acquired properties in the quarter, signalling a return to growth.
Intea took possession of a portfolio of prison properties and several special youth homes from Specialfastigheter for SEK 1.4bn, expanding its presence in the Mälardalen region, where five of the prison properties are located, and improving property diversification. However, property concentration remains significant following the acquisition. In the fourth quarter, the company acquired a police seizure and forensic facility in Växjö for SEK 107m on a 10-year lease, and a district court in Härnösand for SEK 223m on a 15-year lease. Construction of the Härnösand district court is expected to be completed by the third quarter of 2026, at which point Intea will take possession. We expect Intea’s property diversification and average remaining lease term to increase over time as acquisitions and project completions continue, and that financial risk will be contained through proactive equity issuance.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter has maintained a high acquisition pace in recent years, and 2025 is no exception. In the fourth quarter of 2025, the company announced acquisitions totalling SEK 2.2bn, including a portfolio of 16 modern retail properties for SEK 1.6bn from Fastena and a retail site in Strängnäs for SEK 0.6bn. The company took possession of these properties in the first quarter of 2026, increasing its portfolio to approximately SEK 25bn. While these acquisitions enhance scale and support cash flow generation, tenant concentration is expected to remain significant, as the acquired properties include a large share of the company’s largest tenants. We expect Svenska Handelsfastigheter to continue its rapid growth, supported by its owners, through acquisitions and to further solidify its position as the market leader in grocery-anchored retail.
Stendörren purchased several logistics and industrial properties in Stockholm, Uppsala and Helsinki totalling SEK 620m in the fourth quarter. We expect these acquisitions to enhance cash flow generation but have only a limited effect on the company's diversification and financial risk profile as it continues to grow rapidly. We anticipate further rapid growth, supported by favourable financing conditions, which may lead to a slight improvement in key credit metrics.
Stenhus completed the sale of two development properties for SEK 235m, reducing leverage and increasing economic occupancy to 94.6%, up 180bps from the third quarter. We expect tenant diversity and cash flows to improve as the company rotates non-income-generating properties in favour of fully let assets. Stenhus also completed the acquisition of Backaheden following a public tender offer, obtaining 97.4% of the shares and enabling compulsory acquisition of the remainder. The company will take possession of the properties and management from 1 Jan. 2026, adding six assets to its wholly owned portfolio, which provides full control of cash flows and allows for optimised cash pooling. Associated company Krona Public Real Estate completed a SEK 145m equity issue in the fourth quarter, increasing Stenhus's stake to 40% from 21.5%. The planned divestments, the Backaheden tender offer, and the Krona Public Real Estate equity issue were already incorporated into our expectations and reflected in the rating action published on 29 Sep. 2025.
Heba acquired the residential property Viggholmen 1 in Vårberg for SEK 420m from a joint venture with Åke Sundvall. The property was previously scheduled to be sold to Svenska Bostäder, which exercised a break option and did not proceed with the acquisition. Heba stated it had sought an appropriate buyer but determined the property was a good fit for its own portfolio. The company took possession on 30 Jan. 2026. The acquisition is expected to increase Heba's leverage, but the implied yield suggests a marginal improvement in earnings capacity and interest coverage. Similar to some local peers, Heba sold a property to a newly formed tenants' association at book value. We believe the option to convert properties to tenant-owned associations remains strong for Heba, given its focus on Sweden's strongest residential market. This adds financial flexibility for low-yielding assets and provides additional liquidity compared with other regions.
In October, Bonnier Fastigheter agreed to acquire a residential property with 137 apartments in Uppsala for SEK 294m from Besqab, with completion scheduled for 1 Feb. 2026. The acquisition aligns with the company's strategy to increase its exposure to residential real estate, which we view positively given the segment's non-cyclical characteristics and higher cash flows compared with the current portfolio.
Stenvalvet has signed an agreement to acquire a project property in Östersund from Diös for the construction of a prison. The project is expected to commence in the third quarter of 2026 and be completed by year-end 2027. We expect this project to have a limited impact on Stenvalvet's financials and business risk profile. We expect a continued deleveraging trajectory.
CA Fastigheter has signed an agreement to purchase 10,500sqm of land in Växjö. The company also agreed to construct 1,900sqm of industrial and office space on the site under an 18-year lease. Construction is expected to be completed by end-2026.
Vacse acquired a facility leased to the University of Borås on a 9-year contract for police education, as well as a development property in Solna where it plans to build 6,700sqm of facilities for the judiciary segment, with a total investment of SEK 650m. This aligns with our expectation that the company will pursue growth opportunities and that its leverage remains below its long-term net LTV target of approximately 40%. Vacse has the lowest financial leverage among NCR-rated real estate issuers and is among the strongest in debt servicing within the broader Swedish real estate sector, with a net LTV of 28.9% and net debt/EBITDA of 6.7x as of end-2025. We expect the company to maintain its prudent and disciplined approach to acquisitions, with long lead times before cash outflows, which should keep leverage low despite planned developments.
Property values for NCR-rated real estate managers rose by approximately 80bps in the fourth quarter, primarily due to Svenska Handelsfastigheter, which reported a 3.6pp increase in property value driven by lower yield requirements and higher net operating income. The company's yield requirements have declined by 28bps since year-end 2024, reflecting increased competition in the transaction market for grocery and discount retail properties. Intea and CA Fastigheter each reported increases of 1.4pp. Excluding these issuers, the average property value increase was 30bps.
Bonnier Fastigheter recorded a decline of 1.2pp during the last reporting period (Sep–Dec). We expect this decline is partly due to the upcoming vacancy in Bonnierhuset, currently occupied by the company's largest tenant, PwC, until 2027. Capital expenditures are likely to weigh on cash flows and valuation as the facilities are converted from a single tenant to a multi-tenant structure. Overall, we expect transaction markets to validate book values. We anticipate yields will remain stable in most segments, with valuations primarily driven by cash flow expectations.
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Share buybacks and growth-initiatives may increase debt up-take and weaken interest coverage
NCR-rated real estate issuers’ average debt maturity was 3 years at the end of the fourth quarter, up 0.3 years from the previous quarter. This is in line with our earlier expectations that NCR-rated issuers would use favourable financing conditions in both capital markets and the banking system to refinance debt on improved terms.
Platzer recorded the largest increase in average debt maturity, extending its debt maturity profile by 0.5 years to 2.7 years as of end-2025. The longer maturity profile is partly due to the company’s 5-year bond issued at 145bps above the reference rate in the fourth quarter. Along with internal policy alignment, we expect the company to maintain committed sources of capital exceeding uses in each 12-month period, supporting improved financial flexibility. On the back of improved liquidity management, we raised the company's short-term rating in the first quarter of 2026. Overall, refinancing on improved terms contributed to a decline in the average interest rate to 3.2% at end-2025, down 10bps from the previous quarter. We expect average interest rates to remain around current levels, based on our expectations of two interest-rate hikes in 2027 and the expiry of low-interest rate swaps.
While interest rates are expected to remain near current levels, we anticipate that some issuers will increase financial leverage due to projects, acquisitions and share buybacks. As a result, interest coverage for certain issuers is likely to weaken in the coming quarters. We expect a rebound in occupancy to offset the cash flow impact of higher debt in the office segment, while residential and other segments with high occupancy rates have limited upside for operating cash flows.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter issued a SEK 500m green bond in October at 99bps above the reference rate, with part of the proceeds used to repay a short-term shareholder loan of SEK 380m granted in the second quarter of 2025. The company refinanced SEK 2.1bn in bank debt during the fourth quarter of 2025, aligning with its new liquidity policy to cover committed capital uses within each 12-month period. The refinancing reduces financing costs, extends average debt maturity by 0.4 years and enhances financial flexibility.
Intea secured a SEK 1bn green loan from the Nordic Investment Bank to finance the new justice centre in Kristianstad. We view the extension of the company's debt maturity profile positively, given its relatively front-loaded debt maturities and weaker liquidity profile compared with investment grade peers.
Stenhus exercised its call option for early redemption of its SEK 600m senior unsecured bond, originally maturing in 2026, using proceeds from the SEK 500m bond issued at 297.5bps in September. We view this proactive management of refinancing risk positively, but do not expect similar actions unless financing conditions improve further. The early refinancing reduced total interest costs, supporting the recovery in interest coverage. The company also increased volumes under its commercial paper programme, further reducing interest expenses but increasing sensitivity to interest rate changes.
Bonnier Fastigheter issued SEK 1bn in new bonds across two transactions, with proceeds used to refinance the final bond issued under stand-alone documentation, thereby increasing alignment of debt documentation.
Heba issued SEK 600m in green bonds and repurchased SEK 580m of bonds maturing in the first quarter of 2026, representing 77% of the outstanding amount. The refinancing was consistent with our expectation that the company's shortfall in committed liquidity coverage over the next 12 months from 30 Sep. 2025 would be temporary. We expect Heba to continue proactively managing its refinancing risk, maintaining a track record of committed sources exceeding uses.
Stendörren issued new green bonds totalling SEK 400m at a spread of 235bps over the reference rate. The company also proactively refinanced SEK 645m in bank loans, reducing credit margins by 40bps. In the second half of 2025, the company refinanced SEK 5.7bn of its total debt, resulting in SEK 35m in lower annual financing costs from the beginning of 2026.
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Diverging trends of equity issuance and share repurchases in the listed sector
In the fourth quarter, Intea raised SEK 504m in new equity capital through the issuance of D-shares, marking the return of D-share issuance in the sector. We view Intea's ability to raise new equity capital positively, as it helps contain risks related to its project development portfolio. However, we expect leverage to increase towards the company's long-term net LTV targets of 50–55% over time, as operating cash flows do not cover capital expenditures and dividend distributions. According to our methodology, D-shares typically receive 100% equity treatment, depending on their share of the capital structure. We believe the company is uniquely positioned in the listed sector and may raise additional capital, given that its shares trade at a significant premium to net asset value, unlike many other listed real estate companies. We do not expect Intea's D-share issuance to trigger a broader trend of D-share issuance.
Stenhus repurchased SEK 68m of its own shares in the fourth quarter, bringing total repurchases to SEK 170m over 2025. We expect the company to allocate capital to the most attractive opportunities to support annual net asset value growth of 12%. Such actions are expected to maintain leverage in line with the company’s financial policy target and result in a moderately high net LTV.
Platzer announced a decision to repurchase up to SEK 100m of its own shares, with SEK 40m repurchased during the fourth quarter. Given Platzer's investment property value of SEK 30bn, these repurchases are relatively small and are expected to have only a marginal impact on the company's financials.
We expect the broader listed real estate sector to continue intensifying efforts to narrow the gap between net asset values and share prices through share repurchases, which could weaken some issuers' financial risk profiles. If companies do not address this gap, they may become attractive acquisition targets for investors with strong access to capital. Should shares remain at a significant discount, we anticipate potential sector consolidation and public-to-private transactions.
Events after the fourth quarter
Acquisitions and divestments
Stendörren acquired a portfolio of 14 properties in Helsinki for SEK 1.3bn, with an average remaining lease term of three years. The company took possession of the properties on 20 Feb. 2026. We have revised our 2026 acquisition expectations upward. The transaction is expected to strengthen the company's cash flow relative to debt and increases our confidence that net interest coverage will rebound in line with previous expectations for 2026. However, the company's average lease duration will shorten, as contracts in Finland are renewed on an until further notice basis after the initial lease period, which we believe reduces visibility of rental income in an economic downturn. The transaction also enhances the company's tenant and locational diversity.
Svenska Handelsfastigheter acquired a smaller property in Tjörn for SEK 147m. Given the company's comparatively large scale, the transaction has a limited impact on financials and tenant composition.
Intea acquired a project property in Uppsala for SEK 160m. The company plans to renovate two buildings and construct four new ones. The acquisition is relatively small, with limited impact on Intea. We expect the company to continue adding new projects to its portfolio.
Stenhus has established a holding company with its largest shareholder, Sterner Stenhus Holding, to acquire Krona Public Real Estate. Both parties transferred their shares to the holding company, triggering a public tender offer for the remaining shares. We expect the takeover to be completed in the near term. The transaction is expected to have a marginal negative impact on Stenhus' cash balance due to the limited scale of Krona Public Real Estate. The company owns eight properties with the largest property located in Kongsberg, Norway.
Platzer signed an agreement with the City of Gothenburg to transfer ownership of land in Högsbo/Södra Änggården in exchange for building rights in central Gothenburg. We view this transaction as supportive of the company's business profile.
Financing
Svenska Handelsfastigheter raised SEK 800m in new equity from its owners. We expect the proceeds to be used to maintain leverage in line with the company’s financial targets and to support future acquisitions. The company also issued SEK 1bn in new bonds, including a three-year bond at 88bps above the reference rate and a SEK 400m tap on the bond maturing in Mar. 2028 at 70bps above the reference rate. We view positively the company’s efforts to increase the share of senior unsecured bonds in its funding mix, which has resulted in high unused credit facility volumes and enhanced financial flexibility to meet bond maturities on a standalone basis.
Heba issued a SEK 300m five-year bond at 115bps above the reference rate. We view the issuance of longer-dated bonds positively, as it extends the company's debt maturity profile.
Intea issued a SEK 600m three-year bond at 85bps above the reference rate, using part of the proceeds to repurchase SEK 264m of bonds. We view this proactive management of upcoming debt maturities positively, given the company's relatively front-loaded debt maturity profile and weaker liquidity position compared with investment-grade peers.
Vacse issued SEK 900m in two longer-dated tranches: a SEK 400m 5-year bond at 78bps above the reference rate and a SEK 500m 7-year bond at 98bps above the reference rate. The long-dated maturities, from a Nordic perspective, reinforce our view of the company's prudent financial risk management and extend its average debt maturity profile. In our view, longer-dated funding reduces funding mismatches, lowers sensitivity to market conditions and provides greater visibility into funding costs. As a result, we consider Vacse less sensitive to changes in credit conditions and interest rates than other NCR-rated peers.
Stendörren issued a SEK 400m tap at 100.75% of face value on its June 2029 maturity, supporting our expectation of a rebound in interest coverage for 2026 amid favourable financing conditions.
Stenhus issued a SEK 100m tap at 101.38% of face value, corresponding to a coupon of 245bps above the reference rate on its December 2029 maturity. Excluding the effect of the approximately 0.5-year shorter maturity, the bond was issued at a 52.5bps tighter spread compared with the October issue at 297.5bps. We see this issue as indicative of improved market sentiment to the issuer and driving a rebound in the company's interest coverage in line with our expectations. The company has continued to repurchase shares and held about 6.8% of total shares in the company in January under its repurchase programme which we believe is consistent with our expectations for the company.
Our quarterly comparison from the third quarter of 2025 is available here.
Recent publications
30 minuter om svenska fastighetssektorn – Kapitalallokering i fokus, 23 Feb. 2026
Svensk Fastighetsfinansiering Full Rating Report, 9 Feb. 2026.
Platzer Fastigheter Holding AB (publ) 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 3 Feb. 2026.
Share buybacks may weaken Swedish real estate managers' financial risk profiles in 2026, 17 Dec. 2025.
Stendörren Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 15 Dec. 2025.
NCR Comments: Platzer Fastigheter Holding AB (publ) rating and outlook unchanged following announcement of share buyback, 10 Dec. 2025.
NCR Comments: Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB' rating unchanged following equity issue, 27 Nov. 2025.
Vacse Full Rating Report, 10 Nov. 2025.
Bonnier Fastigheter Full Rating Report, 6 Nov. 2025.
NCR Comments: Heba Fastighets AB (publ) 'BBB' rating and outlook unchanged following revised expectations on financial development, 27 Oct. 2025.
Axfast Full Rating Report, 7 Oct. 2025.
Vacse AB (publ) 'A-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 7 Oct. 2025.
LSTH Svenska Handelsfastigheter AB (publ) long-term issuer rating raised to 'BBB'; Outlook stable, 3 Oct. 2025.
Stenhus Fastigheter i Norden AB (publ) 'BB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 29 Sep. 2025.
Strong financing climate for Swedish real estate companies in an uncertain environment, 16 Sep. 2025.
Platzer Full Rating Report, 16 Jun. 2025.
Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB' rating unchanged following equity issue, 22 May 2025.
Intea Fastigheter AB (publ) 'BBB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 14 May 2025.
Fastighets AB Stenvalvet 'BBB' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 14 May 2025.
CA Fastigheter AB 'BBB-' long-term issuer rating affirmed; Outlook stable, 11 Apr. 2025
Comparison of Swedish industrial and logistics property managers, 1 Apr. 2025.
NCR comments: Vacse AB (publ) 'A-' rating unchanged following addition of new owner and equity issue, 1 Apr. 2025.
Analyst contact details:
Gustav Nilsson, +46735420446, gustav.nilsson@nordiccreditrating.com
Elisabeth Adebäck, +46700442775, elisabeth.adeback@nordiccreditrating.com
On
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