NCR's long-term issuer ratings on NOBA Bank Group ('BBB'), Resurs Bank ('BBB-') and Norion Bank ('BB+') are unchanged following news that the Swedish National Debt Office (Riksgälden) is considering a potential recalibration of deposit guarantee fees.
In an interview with FinansWatch, the head of Riksgälden signalled plans to revise the model used to calculate an institution's fee to the Swedish deposit guarantee fund to be more risk sensitive. The rationale for updating the model reflects that niche institutions have grown rapidly in guaranteed deposits, including a high share of foreign-sourced deposits, and that these deposits have primarily financed higher-risk loans. The article connects these issues to Riksgälden's role in maintaining financial stability, mentioning a shared interest with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority. The model is expected to be circulated for consultation in 2026, though the scope and calibration of any changes have not yet been specified.
Nordic Credit Rating (NCR) has previously noted that changes to deposit‑guarantee frameworks could represent a key structural risk for Nordic niche banks, depending on the scope of revisions. These banks typically have over 90% of deposits covered by the guarantee, compared with less than 40% for major banks and 60–80% for savings banks and retail mortgage lenders. We believe that the guarantee underpins customer confidence and enables niche banks to attract deposits at lower cost, supporting growth objectives and strong earnings.
A more risk-sensitive fee structure is therefore likely to increase funding costs and pressure profitability for banks that rely heavily on guaranteed retail deposits, particularly those using cross‑border deposit platforms, where regulators view funding as more volatile. Higher fees could reduce the economics of deposit‑driven growth and force adjustments to funding strategies, deposit pricing, and balance‑sheet expansion plans.
Because the proposal’s design remains unspecified, we are unable to estimate potential impacts at this stage. The current fee model is available on Riksgälden's website. However, we interpret Riksgälden's comments as implying that both the included factors and their weighting are likely to change.
Related publications
i) Nordic niche banks focus on optimisation and scalability in 2026, 13 Jan. 2026.
ii) 30 minutes on Nordic niche banks – Outlook 2016, 13 Jan. 2026.
This commentary does not constitute a rating action.
Contacts:
Sean Cotten, chief rating officer, +46735600337, sean.cotten@nordiccreditrating.com
Ylva Forsberg, analyst, +46768806742, ylva.forsberg@nordiccreditrating.com